I want to talk about our game even though it's very far out in advance. Typically you'll see some real movement on CFB games Friday before the game, but since our game is on a Sunday I'm expecting some movement on Saturday. Anything on gameday is something to seriously watch out for since we are the only game on, so the sharps will be devoting all of their attention to this game. If any of you are interested in some great gambling literature, check out "Gaming the Game". In that book, they talk about how some of the sharps were absolutely lethal when it came to betting MNF games for the NFL. Why? Because they were able to devote all of their time to dissecting that one game, rather than breaking down 14 or so games on Sunday. So you'll notice on the below chart that our O/U has actually risen from 45.5 to 48.5 (you only see 46 to 48.5 because the screen only shows so much at once).
Most of the posters on this site in the prediction thread do not expect this game to sniff 48.5 points. Notice the juice on the Under now at -115 at Pinnacle after previously having even juice on both sides. Bookmaker has our O/U at 47.5 right now and I'm seeing mainly 47.5 or 48 on the screen. I fully expect the O/U to be 48 or less come gameday. Why did it rise? My guess is it was a nice setup by the originator to snag the Under at a better price. Think pump and dump stock situations. The same logic applies; the same technical analysis applies. 48 is a key number because it could easily be a 28-20 or 27-21 type of game. If you like the Under, I'd get it now at 48. I really don't see this one moving to 49 again. It did at some spots (Heritage) and then summarily dropped down to 48.5 and now to 48.
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