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Final 10 ACC Games and Review

Consigliere

Consigliere

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Currently we're 4-4 and tied for 8th place in the ACC. Although this is not the halfway point, we've seen a large sample of games in conference to make some opinions. I think it would be a "bit" of a disappointment if we didn't go to the NCAAT.

These are opinions based on ACC play, not the full season.

The Good:

- Walker: The kid has shown up and has began to dominate everywhere. He clearly has been our best player. Not sure why he is dominating now but I am sure it is a combination of (a) he is getting better, (b) overcoming surgery, (c) confidence and (d) getting used to and adjusting to the speed of the game. I think he will continue to play at a high level and will be the difference maker.

- Huell's offense: What a difference from last year.

- Amp: During ACC play, he is averaging 11 PPG and 6.9 RPG. We really need him to be a vocal leader out there, like Murphy last year.

- Sam: Now although the sample size is incredibly small, he is showing signs of life.

- Lykes at 20 MPG or more: When he plays 20 or more minutes he is averaging 11.1 PPG and 3.2 APG. Although slightly wild, he should be running the point and starting. I also like his range.


The Bad:

- Brown: Although he has always had problems finishing at the rim, he has become very inconsistent with many aspects of the game. Maybe it is the hand/wrist injury, maybe he just has been in a slump, maybe he just regressed or maybe it is a combination of many things. The good news is there are 10 games left and plenty of room/time for improvement. If we can just get a more consistent effort it will make a tremendous difference.

- Huell's Defense: He is a liability on defense. He isn't physical and has been destroyed the last 3 games. Numerous times against FSU, he hardly moved and allowed easy layups. He needs to get a lot better.

- DJ: Besides last game, he has fallen and been replaced. Rightfully replaced. The bottom line is if DJ can't hit shots, he needs to sit.


Our Remaining Schedule:

6 Home v. 4 Away (in parenthesis is the RPI)

Home: Pitt (154), WF (118), UVA (3), Cuse (34), BC (66) and VT (77)
Away: @ VT (77), @ BC (66), @ ND (60) and @ UNC (5)

The Home Schedule, besides UVA, is a joke. Pitt and WF have 1 ACC win combined. BC is tied for 3rd worst with ND in the ACC. BC's road win is @ Clemson. Cuse is 1-3 on the road and they gave WF their only win. Cuse's only road win is at Clemson. VT has 2 road wins against ND and WF. Nothing needs to be said about UVA, they're great.

Average RPI: 75.3 (89.8 w/o UVA)

The Away Schedule isn't too bad. ND is 2-5 without Colson and they're 1-3 at Home. ND has lost 5 straight as well. This team is not the same without the POY candidate. BC has all of their wins at home (3) and one of them was against Duke. VT is 2-2 at home, with a win against UNC. UNC is 4-1 at home. That loss was yesterday to NCST.

Average RPI: 52


My Expectations for the Remaining 10 Games

4 or less wins: 5% (this would be catastrophic and short of some tragedy unthinkable)

5 wins: 10% [8th-10th Place]

6 wins: 60% [7th-8th Place]

7 wins: 20% [5th-6th Place]

8 or more wins: 5% [3rd-4th Place]
 
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Spot on stuff.

Definitely disappointed in Huell in 2 of the last 3 games. I can overlook his D versus Louisville mostly because of his double double.

BB is a complete enigma. Either he's injured, looking ahead to the draft and figuring his performances won't impact his position or looking over his shoulder at IV. It's literally impossible to regress this badly. Take away his NC State performance and his last five games have been abysmal.

If DJ can come of the bench and give us 3 to 4 critical 3s per game, I'll take it. Hopefully he got some of his confidence back.

Waardenburg is good for some quality minutes. He needs to work on his passing but I like what I've seen lately.

We lack an alpha. Too many strong silent types.

This might very well become IV's team over the remaining stretch.

My early season predictions were based on last year's BB getting better and definitely not this year's version. 6-4 or 7-3 sounds about right.
 
I like the schedule too. The good ACC teams are still experimenting and getting young guys PT. That will continue for a few more weeks. We are still experimenting as well and for good reason as again this year we don't really have a center and Newt is simply not producing at PG.
Huell has made amazing strides offensively but like DJ and Amp loses his man several times a game. IMO Whattaburger is worth an extended look as backup for Huell and Amp but he is not a physical guy either and that is what we need. PG is where the staff must focus right now. BB MUST be on the floor even if he struggles offensively so sharing PG with Lykes and even Amp is worth a try. IMO its all about Lykes this year. If he doesn't earn and keep the starting job we flame out early and will be lucky to make the 64
 
With our RPI, 15, with the strength of the ACC, I think 9-9 and an ACCT win, gets us in. I don't want to put that in the committee's hands, I think we go at least 10-8 with the remaining schedule, but I'm not worried about missing the tournament.
 
Bruce is the key. If he can play the way he is capable this team will be a scary team to play in March. Bruce has always been a confident player and I think he has lost his confidence at that is the main issue here. I'm confident that Bruce will find a way to get back his confidence and things will start going better for him. He was benched to start the 2nd half and was still cheering on him team and was engaged which is a good sign from a leader. We need Bruce so there is no reason in benching him moving forward. I think it's best to play him at the point. Newton can't play it and I love Lykes but he is careless with the ball and makes too many bad decisions when being point guard. Brown does a good job of facilitating and having the ball in his hands more should give him a better feel for the game and you would hope he'll stop pressing and start making more shots.
 
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edge3241 said:
Bruce is the key. If he can play the way he is capable this team will be a scary team to play in March. Bruce has always been a confident player and I think he has lost his confidence at that is the main issue here. I'm confident that Bruce will find a way to get back his confidence and things will start going better for him. He was benched to start the 2nd half and was still cheering on him team and was engaged which is a good sign from a leader. We need Bruce so there is no reason in benching him moving forward. I think it's best to play him at the point. Newton can't play it and I love Lykes but he is careless with the ball and makes too many bad decisions when being point guard. Brown does a good job of facilitating and having the ball in his hands more should give him a better feel for the game and you would hope he'll stop pressing and start making more shots.
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Totally agree that BB is the key. I see 9-9 if he doesn't pick it up. Would be nice if Sam's improvement continues. We need a player with some height since Coach L's confidence in Miller was clearly misplaced.
 
Everyone on the roster has shown something this year, we just need more consistency. Always thought we'd be better at the end of the year than the beginning given the minutes the freshman were going to play. That said, there is a ****-ton of whining, complaining and giving the refs looks when we don't get calls. That **** has to stop. We are not Duke. The calls aren't coming. Deal with it. Especially Brown.

Walker has a nice stroke and hope to see the shooting from the last couple of games continue. Lykes gambles a bit too much on D, but he provides a spark and knows how to be a point guard (set up others for open shots). Amp has been a nice role player and Huell is much improved, though his defense has been suspect the last two games. If Brown can get it together, good things can happen.

It would be a big disappointment to not make the NCAAT. I don't see that happening unless we suffer injuries.
 
Go two and two on the road.

Maybe drop 1 at home.

That's 7-3. 6-4 at the worst. If we can't do 6-4 with that schedule we don't belong in
 
I don't give a crap about not belonging in. I want to be in whether we belong to be in or not. We're not UK and we're not Miami football. This is Miami basketball and we're building a program. We need every NCAAT appearance we can get.
 
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[Post After Brown]

This sucks. The season is not over but it will obviously be a lot harder to make the NCAAT now. I doubt Brown plays again this season.

The good news is we have our easiest game of the season at home tomorrow against Pitt. Hopefully we figure it out tomorrow. Then we have a winnable game at VT and our second easiest game (remaining) at home. If we win 2 of our next 3 games, then I think we're looking good.

-------------------

Regardless of performance in the ACCT, I don't know if a 9-9 ACC team makes the tourney. The ACC, as a whole, doesn't look as good especially with ND in the dumps and UL not eligible for the post-season.

6 Wins can still happen.
 
Not sure what thread I should put this in cause there’s no pitt game thread but does anybody else think its crazy that we’re 16.5 point favorites against pitt and have a 97.7% chance to win according to espn(even without Bruce Brown)???
 
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anandris said:
Not sure what thread I should put this in cause there’s no pitt game thread but does anybody else think its crazy that we’re 16.5 point favorites against pitt and have a 97.7% chance to win according to espn(even without Bruce Brown)???
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Pitt is atrocious.

- Lost 9 Straight
- During ACC play, they're average road loss is more than 20 points.
- BPI: 235th
- RPI: 165th
- SOS: 55th

I don't know what the spread should be but you can't lose to Pitt and/or WF at home. They're both utter dogchit and they're 2 of our next 3 opponents.
 
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Consigliere said:
anandris said:
Not sure what thread I should put this in cause there’s no pitt game thread but does anybody else think its crazy that we’re 16.5 point favorites against pitt and have a 97.7% chance to win according to espn(even without Bruce Brown)???
Click to expand...

Pitt is atrocious.

- Lost 9 Straight
- During ACC play, they're average road loss is more than 20 points.
- BPI: 235th
- RPI: 165th
- SOS: 55th

I don't know what the spread should be but you can't lose to Pitt and/or WF at home. They're both utter dogchit and they're 2 of our next 3 opponents.
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I agree but no game in the acc played is ever a 97.7% sure thing. I just think it’s funny how espn came up with that number using their algorithm. So basically espn probably thinks that pitt at Virginia is a 99.5% win. That’s bullsh*t
 
Be interesting to see how we rebound the ball tonight. Bruce was only 3 boards behind Huell (our leading rebounder).
 
With all due respect to op, I think loss of bb changes his prognosis. Bb had a disappointing performance this year but he was our leading assist maker and our #1 rebounder based on average rbs per game. His absence will mean more playing time for Newton. I know how much he is disliked by this forum. Lykes can contribute but if we are playing a team with tall guards he is a defensive liability. Op felt 5-5 as a 10% chance. I think it is 40-50 chance we go 5 and 5 in remaining games. Besides definite loses to uva and unc, v tech could be 2 loses and n dame at their place could be a loss. If our team was as good as we hoped it would be. 2/3rds into season we should have been playing much better and winning more games in conference. It seems to me we are under achieving and trend will continue balance of season.
 
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Hemsleysalmons said:
With all due respect to op, I think loss of bb changes his prognosis. Bb had a disappointing performance this year but he was our leading assist maker and our #1 rebounder based on average rbs per game. His absence will mean more playing time for Newton. I know how much he is disliked by this forum. Lykes can contribute but if we are playing a team with tall guards he is a defensive liability. Op felt 5-5 as a 10% chance. I think it is 40-50 chance we go 5 and 5 in remaining games. Besides definite loses to uva and unc, v tech could be 2 loses and n dame at their place could be a loss. If our team was as good as we hoped it would be. 2/3rds into season we should have been playing much better and winning more games in conference. It seems to me we are under achieving and trend will continue balance of season.
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We gotta wait and see how the other players respond. Sometimes losing your leader sends some players into a shell and others are inspired to grow up. I expect Amp and Huell to step up. Dj could rise to the occasion as well.

Newton has little to no court vision or a desire to develop it, but he can score against high level competition. He's just not the answer at pg and he should never take another 3. We will need him however, if we want any chance of being competitive down the stretch.

Coach L, do your magic.
 
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