Earlier in the year, I was polling some coaches about who they thought the most intriguing college football programs would be in the next two to four years. Some of the answers -- a handful of SEC teams, Ohio State and even USC -- were fairly predictable. They were the highly visible, typically discussed schools.
But the support that one, Miami, received was a bit surprising, considering that it hasn’t sniffed a double-digit-win season (meaning it hasn’t been in the BCS title hunt) in a decade. Some of those who were high on the Hurricanes were ACC guys, even.
I was curious why. I like Al Golden as much as the next person, but who is to say Miami might be “back” as much as any other name-brand program on the short list that includes FSU, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Texas or Tennessee?
Here are a few major points that came up in these conversations -- factors that could influence whether or not Miami returns to prominence this year or in the near future.
Golden is special
The consensus was essentially this: Anyone who can go and turn around Temple in just a couple of seasons must be the real deal. Plus, most coaches felt as if Miami had started to come out of the NCAA storm clouds, even if the final decision has not been reached.
Golden has admitted that it’s been a challenge to recruit without getting even an inkling of how the Nevin Shapiro case will pan out. But once the governing body botched the investigation, it led to the sense that the penalties would be massaged. Some recruiting mojo followed and hope was operative. The Canes wound up with a respectable No. 15 class in last year’s recruiting rankings, and they reside at No. 12 in the current ratings (with already 20 commitments).
Some coaches I talked to wondered in the past year or so if Golden would bail on the program, due in large part to the uncertainty of the penalties. But Golden stuck with it, and he might in the end be rewarded with a general pardoning.
“I thought he was a great hire, but I was almost surprised he went there when he did,” one of the coaches said. “He’s a really sharp guy and really impressive to me. I like watching his teams on TV, but I don’t really enjoy seeing them in person.”
The defense has to improve
If there's one factor that could quickly derail the Hurricanes' bid at a breakout season, it's production on the defensive side of the ball. Granted, there's reason for optimism: Miami returns as many starters as any team in the country. But as one coach reminded me, returning starters does not always equal victories.
“That’s something you guys [in the media] get hung up on, who is coming back,” he said. “Just because they started last year doesn't mean we want them starting this year. That’s why we recruit and hope they push each other all spring and summer. There’s no contract.”
OK, that’s fair, and it particularly applies when it comes to Miami’s defense. Part of it means the Hurricanes were going with an extremely young look a year ago. Sophomores Raphael Kirby, Antonio Crawford, Deon Bush and Rayshawn Jenkins are all expected to play a lot of snaps this season. Freshman linebacker Alex Figueroa and redshirt freshman corner Nate Dortch might, too.
Regardless of who and how old they are, the fact is that the unit must improve. In four of the team’s five losses in 2012, the Hurricanes allowed 33 points or more, including 41 to Notre Dame and Virginia and 52 to Kansas State. How does a team give up 41 points to the Cavaliers and Fighting Irish? That’s perhaps the best place to begin this point. It defies logic.
The Canes were 97th of 120 FBS teams in yards per play allowed (6.11), 102nd in yards per rush (4.97) and 82nd in points per game allowed (30.5). It’s extremely difficult to win with those numbers. Not even the most explosive offense could continually outscore opponents with those figures working against it. Those young players are going to have to show significant improvement this season and play up to their talent
Stephen Morris has All-ACC potential
In a league that features Tajh Boyd, Bryn Renner and Logan Thomas, Morris could be a sneaky pick for first-team all-conference quarterback. He proved why in the final month of the season.
Morris had a 199 passer rating in November, averaging 11.7 yards an attempt and throwing nine touchdowns with zero picks. His streak of 139 passes without an interception is bordering on historically good in the conference picture.
What helps? An extremely experienced offensive line, headed up by 6-foot-8, 345-pound tackle Seantrel Henderson. Also returning is dangerous, versatile running back Duke Johnson, who went for 100 total yards a game (6.8 yards per carry) and 11 total touchdowns as a freshman.
If it carries over, Morris’ efficiency -- he’s like Louisville’s Teddy Bridgewater, minus the hype -- could be an X factor for the offense.
There’s new life
It sort of goes back to the NCAA thing, but, like Ohio State and North Carolina, Miami now knows it can play for something. The self-imposed ban has been lifted, and the Hurricanes are eligible for the ACC title game (they would have been in it a year ago at 5-3 in conference play), a bowl game or whatever else they can get into.
I spoke this spring with UNC coach Larry Fedora about shifting mindsets once a postseason carrot is dangled in front of your players. He said he would like to think it doesn’t make that big of a difference from day to day, but he did notice a difference when championships were again added to the informal list of team goals. And the same applies at Miami, where it knows the division -- Virginia Tech and those same Tar Heels are the most viable of options -- is fairly wide open.
Miami is in Florida
And that’s the reason Miami will remain potentially intriguing beyond just 2013 and beyond a season in which it returns this many players.
Golden’s charisma plus Florida-based recruiting means the Hurricanes do in fact have a decent chance of getting “back,” or something close to it.
One coach said: “As long as Miami doesn’t fall into the ocean [author's note: scientists aren’t expecting that for a few thousand years], it should have talent. It should have players who win games.”
Miami Central running back Joseph Yearby is the class of the class so far, but it has also added three top O-line commits and a high-end D-line recruit. And, yes, they’re all from South Florida.
A win in the Canes' Week 2 matchup with Florida would provide a huge in-state recruiting boost for Miami. It would also jump-start a season that features additional "statement game" opportunities against UNC, Florida State and Virginia Tech. If an improved defense fuels wins in two or more of those contests, Miami could find itself in the thick of the ACC title race -- and back in the national discussion.
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