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Early Odds for Next year's Ship, grab some kleenex

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Third year seems to be the year most teams make the leap with a new coach.....see ND.
 
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We went 9-4 with Randy. Like next year, we were given no love from national media, especially due to our schedule out of the gate: at FSU, Georgia Tech, at Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma. Each of those were top 20 teams. Some had us going 0-4 to start. We went 3-1 and everyone was happy (future looked bright).

Then, the second half of the season happened. Lose a heartbreaker to Clemson and to UNC (never should've lost). We cost ourselves a chance of playing for the conference title. Then, the bowl game against Wisky was disastrous. No motivation.

In other words, we went into it with no love, gained some love, and, in typical Randy fashion, we crumbled at the end of the season.

For 2013, we have the following in our favor:
1) Basically our entire team returning
2) Morris and Duke were playing at an extreme level at season's end
3) Our schedule is much easier
4) We have a much better coach; one whose teams have gained momentum by year-end
5) Under the radar despite winning the coastal

Of course, we also have the problems on defense and the looming NCAA stuff. Still, I just don't see why we aren't getting more recognition. We win the coastal and return the ENTIRE team outside Mike James, and I've already seen most media outlets picking VT, GT, and UNC ahead of us. That part I don't get.
 
I'm actually flattered to have the same odds as OU, South Carolina and Louisville, more respect than I expected.

I'm liking those A&M odds.
 
Glad to see we are getting some respect but i think next year will be just a solid year while 2014 will be our real break out year!
 
love the ambition but with our schedule i really dont see that happening but hey u never know i guess. Go Canes!
 
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FlaSportsFan88 said:
I'm actually flattered to have the same odds as OU, South Carolina and Louisville, more respect than I expected.

I'm liking those A&M odds.
Click to expand...

Some are underestimating the two superstar Tackles TAMU loses next year. Additionally, they lose a top DE slotted to go in the first round of the NFL draft.
 
LuCane said:
FlaSportsFan88 said:
I'm actually flattered to have the same odds as OU, South Carolina and Louisville, more respect than I expected.

I'm liking those A&M odds.
Click to expand...

Some are underestimating the two superstar Tackles TAMU loses next year. Additionally, they lose a top DE slotted to go in the first round of the NFL draft.
Click to expand...

Matthews is returning. Not many teams actually have their DEs rush anyway with Manziel. Defense is losing a fair bit but their offense will likely be better next year. More efficient anyway.
 
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when vegas gives you good odds like that, this is a good sign for your season. These guys don't come up with numbers out of their ***. Hundreds of millions are at stake in sports betting. I has a happy pants from this.
 
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That number will go up quite a bit once some of the other joints check in. Bovada is notorious for short future prices.

I can guarantee this: You'd be out of your mind to play into a number like that. All you'd have to do is take some money and roll it over on the money line on our pivotal games. That could easily equate to 100/1 or higher if we won all of them. There's no risk. We'd never make it to the title game with a loss. We'll be underdogs several times and short favorites on other occasions. Heck, it's not inconceivable we could be 25/1 or thereabouts in merely two games -- road at FSU and in the BCS title game. We could be 5/1 money line price at FSU and 5/1 in the title game, should somebody like Alabama make it and be a 10 point favorite again.

As I warned posters on a USC forum months ago, there's almost no sense in betting into a BCS price unless you will be favored in that final game. USC was 5/2, believe it or not. Seems inconceivable now. Look at Notre Dame. Fantastic season yet they were 10 point underdogs. Taking the best SEC team is always the way to look because they invariably will be favored in the championship game.
 
919Cane2DaGrave said:
when vegas gives you good odds like that, this is a good sign for your season. These guys don't come up with numbers out of their ***. Hundreds of millions are at stake in sports betting. I has a happy pants from this.
Click to expand...

First of all, it's not Las Vegas. Those are online sportsbooks. Secondly, futures prices indeed come out of their ***. There's so much profit built into a futures book that it's almost a laughing matter when you put them up. I've been there, working in major sportsbooks as supervisor. You hang a ridiculously low number because you realize sucker tourists will still play into it. They'll walk up to the window with a list from home, like Uncle Fred wants $20 on Michigan. He doesn't care what the number is. Therefore you short all the brand name teams.

When somebody bets heavily into a number you lower that one while leaving everything else alone. That means the house take steadily goes up. Frankly, it's almost insulting. Some of the classy sportsbooks will raise numbers when they get no action on a team. We did that at the Horseshoe when Nick Bogdanovich ran the place. But countless joints never raise anything.

It's a pure myth that great thought or heavy sophistication goes into those numbers. The major sports consulting firm will send out numbers. In my day it was called Nevada Sports Consultants, run by Michael "Roxy" Roxborough. His parents lived in Coral Gables, BTW. Perhaps they still do, although they'd be extremely elderly right now. Roxy used to tell me his dream was to live in Coral Gables. Instead, I think he moved overseas and became a horse player. That was his obsession. He loved exotics. Anyway, once you get those send numbers the sportsbook manager will take a look at them and ask his most respected supervisors what they think, if anybody is too high or too low. It's a short process, maybe a half hour. If there's a consensus that one team is too high or low, the sportsbook manager will adjust accordingly. Then you stick them up and see what happens. It's about as sophisticated as kids with a lemonade stand. Okay, maybe a high priced lemonade stand. But somehow Las Vegas has a mystical reputation if you've never worked behind the counter.
 
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awsi dooger is right that UM is up this high simply because these books can get away with it based on potential and it has value for them because of miami's brand. obv no one thinks that miami is one of the top 12 teams in the country right now.

i do think it's indicative of the fact that a lot of pople in the mainstream media aren't aware that miami could be on the cusp of a BCS season
 
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