MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

Why would the more valuable schools and conferences (B1G/SEC) ever want to pool with the less valuable schools and conferences?

The money these non-profit schools make go back into education, women's sports, capital projects, scholarships, and other things that help a university provide for its students. Of course they are going to want to maximize revenue, especially when the networks are making billions broadcasting the games.

"Non-profit" does not equal charity or communism. You say that the individual schools would make "close to $100M" each. But you're just making it up and being wishful. That's just not true.

And let me say, I wish what you wrote was correct.
Look, I fully admit this would rely on long-term thinking and collegiality. Two concepts that have been ignored for the most part in recent college football history. For one, schools and conferences go through highs and lows. As an example, the SEC has won 12 of the last 20 national titles, but in the 22 years prior to that, they won 3. Miami won 5 NCs in a 20 year period, but have been mediocre for the most part over the next 20.

If you have 2 or 3 conferences in one TV package, you mitigate the risks of these dry spells, plus you have an inventory of games from 12pm EST kickoffs to 10:30pm kickoffs on the west coast in one package. Plus, you would get better cross-conference games in this type of arrangement instead of 2 or 3 OOC games each year against the FCS or Group of 5.

I think if there was collaboration like this, it would create more revenues for college football programs overall (not for some), but strengthen the game as a whole as well. You know the old phrase, the whole is greater than the some of its parts.
 
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Maudes need to let this one ride until Fall camp starts.
 
Look, I fully admit this would rely on long-term thinking and collegiality. Two concepts that have been ignored for the most part in recent college football history. For one, schools and conferences go through highs and lows. As an example, the SEC has won 12 of the last 20 national titles, but in the 22 years prior to that, they won 3. Miami won 5 NCs in a 20 year period, but have been mediocre for the most part over the next 20.

If you have 2 or 3 conferences in one TV package, you mitigate the risks of these dry spells, plus you have an inventory of games from 12pm EST kickoffs to 10:30pm kickoffs on the west coast in one package. Plus, you would get better cross-conference games in this type of arrangement instead of 2 or 3 OOC games each year against the FCS or Group of 5.

I think if there was collaboration like this, it would create more revenues for college football programs overall (not for some), but strengthen the game as a whole as well. You know the old phrase, the whole is greater than the some of its parts.

Logistically it’s impossible. Not enough espn channels to air all the games
 
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Logistically it’s impossible. Not enough espn channels to air all the games
I have alternative channels on my cable box that broadcast games on Saturdays, plus you have ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, ESPNNews, ABC, ACC Network, SEC Network, Big 10 Network, and ESPN3 & WatchESPN to stream games, there are a variety of locations these games could be broadcast on.
 
Was surprised this wasn’t posted here already:

EDIT: Sharing the only two pieces of good legit info credibly shared in this thread to save people from madness:

-Announcement of UM and Clemson leaving the ACC to take place before season start, with the actual date of departure in the next 2-3 years. SEC is likely target.

View attachment 196491
-curtesy Baba Yaga

The thread title LMAOOOOOO
 
For sake of argument, let's say

Miami sec
FSU sec
Clemson sec
NC St sec
UNC B1G

I believe you only need 8 votes to terminate the GOR. If the above is where things stand now, that means they only need 3 more schools to get a P2 conference invite. I don't know if ND gets a vote, if they do they'd vote in favor. So then that would mean just two more schools need invites. Maybe Duke and UVA to B1G, and it's over for the acc.
UNC going to the B1G solo would almost seem akin to what Maryland did on some* levels. It would work out monetarily but would seemingly destroy it's entire previous identity.

That's one good thing about our history and our national "brand". We have history and hate (incoming and outgoing) everywhere. Sure, I'd miss the FSU rivalry if it HAD to go but they're not our Dook and our history isn't even based entirely on this state let alone a (Tobacco) road.
 
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UNC going to the B1G solo would almost seem akin to what Maryland did on some* levels. It would work out monetarily but would seemingly destroy it's entire previous identity.

That's one good thing about our history and our national "brand". We have history and hate (incoming and outgoing) everywhere. Sure, I'd miss the FSU rivalry if it HAD to go but they're not our Dook and our history isn't even based entirely on this state let alone a (Tobacco) road.
If that scenario can to fruition, I’d be shocked if Virginia didn’t go with them.
 
I'm pretty sure this thread title needs to be changed to "Some conferences to watch before it's deleted".


In honor of this great accomplishment, I'm donating $69 to the fuq FSU fund in the name of the maude who changed the title.

2036 is a long ways away and the GOR figure if true is insane, $17 million per school vs the others for that long is looking pretty pathetic. The ACC bet on itself and seems to have lost in every way at this point.
 
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From my source:
Canes, Clemson, Jackson State, Bishop Sycamore & St. Thomas Aquinas to the Big 12 (sponsored by Dr. Pepper). UCF dropped.
Be Quiet Season 2 GIF by Martin
 
Look, I fully admit this would rely on long-term thinking and collegiality. Two concepts that have been ignored for the most part in recent college football history. For one, schools and conferences go through highs and lows. As an example, the SEC has won 12 of the last 20 national titles, but in the 22 years prior to that, they won 3. Miami won 5 NCs in a 20 year period, but have been mediocre for the most part over the next 20.

If you have 2 or 3 conferences in one TV package, you mitigate the risks of these dry spells, plus you have an inventory of games from 12pm EST kickoffs to 10:30pm kickoffs on the west coast in one package. Plus, you would get better cross-conference games in this type of arrangement instead of 2 or 3 OOC games each year against the FCS or Group of 5.

I think if there was collaboration like this, it would create more revenues for college football programs overall (not for some), but strengthen the game as a whole as well. You know the old phrase, the whole is greater than the some of its parts.

It literally goes against the laws of human nature, and the laws of capitalism. I love your spirit, and you are on the better side of the ethics curve on this, but football teams have been joining and leaving conferences to their own benefit practically since college football began. ****, the SEC was created in 1932 when a bunch of schools in the Southern Conference broke away, Including Tulane, the University of the South aka Sewanee (thanks google!), and GT.

The idea that everyone is going to suddenly find god, after 100 years, when there are suddenly $100M annual paydays on the table, is just not realistic.

Again, you've made a statement that is baseless and presented it as fact. "It would create more revenues for college football programs overall" is just not necessarily true. Having to allocate airtime to teams and games that no one wants to watch would actually devalue the broadcast rights as a whole IMO.
 
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It literally goes against the laws of human nature, and the laws of capitalism. I love your spirit, and you are on the better side of the ethics curve on this, but football teams have been joining and leaving conferences to their own benefit practically since college football began. ****, the SEC was created in 1932 when a bunch of schools in the Southern Conference broke away, Including Tulane, the University of the South aka Sewanee (thanks google!), and GT.

The idea that everyone is going to suddenly find god, after 100 years, when there are suddenly $100M annual paydays on the table, is just not realistic.

Again, you've made a statement that is baseless and presented it as fact. "It would create more revenues for college football programs overall" is just not necessarily true. Having to allocate airtime to teams and games that no one wants to watch would actually devalue the broadcast rights as a whole IMO.
I did state it would not generate more revenues for some programs, but for the collective overall. As you mention, schools have gone in and out of conferences for their own benefit. However, I would state it was also to give them stability of revenues in the down times. Miami was a cash cow as an independent when they were going to New Year's Bowl games every year and pocketing the money for themselves. They join the Big East to help their basketball program and sign a deal where football money is based on performance. In turn, they had some rougher years there in the probation years and money wasn't too accessible.

Along came the ACC and Miami knew it would get a solid revenue flow so they went for it. I wonder what happens when the next TV deal comes up after this one. First of all, do the Vandy's, Indiana's, and Northwestern's get kicked out because they don't add value? Do any current big timers get kicked out if they fall on hard times?

Btw, all of these statements on expected paydays are baseless and not fact as these new deals are all estimated for now. Let's see what comes out of them.

I'm just saying you could be surprised at the value that is out there if the Power 5 consolidated its content like the NFL has and broke it up amongst multiple broadcasters who would pay big bucks. The NFL is getting $10 billion a year for 32 teams. It would be interesting if the Power 5 and its roughly 70 teams could negotiate a similar deal and get $7 billion a year for much more programming than the NFL offers (albeit for a lower grade product) and would basically take 3 months of Saturdays during the year, along with Thursday and Friday nights.
 
Best guess? That's a tough one, because of a lot of moving parts.

EDIT: I had a much longer response written, but I cut it down.

I'd be willing to bet that a RANGE for an acceptable settlement would be somewhere between 100M and 200M. I don't see the ACC taking less than 100. They have to make UM and Clemson hurt. The ACC (essentially) takes some of that "extra SEC money" that Miami/Clemson would be getting, and they put it in their own pockets. I don't think there has ever been a GRANT OF RIGHTS settlement that has hit 9 figures. Texas/OU and USC/UCLA are just waiting out GOR expirations, or getting close. The money that they WILL pay is standard contractual stuff for LEAVING THE CONFERENCE, and not "exiting the GOR early". So in addition to the $50M that UM pays just to leave the conference, there would be an additional 100M to 200M to exit the GOR. And the upper end number (200M) would probably be rational if (a) UM/Clemson are the only schools leaving and have little leverage, and (b) the ACC acknowledges an intent to live on with lesser members like UCF/USF. And $300M for GOR exit is just crazy, if it was easy to get full payment on every dispute, nobody would ever hire an attorney.

Split the diff? $150M GOR settlement plus the $50M conference exit fee? [FOR THE RECORD, THE GOR AMOUNT GOES DOWN FOR EVERY YEAR YOU DELAY, SO IF WE WAITED THREE YEARS OUT OF THIRTEEN, YOU COULD KNOCK OFF ABOUT ONE-FOURTH OF THE GOR SETTLEMENT]

Dan's gonna have to figure out how to grow the other revenue to offset this. And ya know what would help...owning your own stadium/concessions revenue streams...

Oh yeah, did you think I forgot about that one? While the Hard Rock Bros whine about driving an extra 10 to 15 miles, I'd just point out that Miami would make waaaaaaay more money from new SEC rivalry games IF WE HAD OUR OWN PLACE AND KEPT ALL THE MONEY.
Was just looking at the ACC exit fee, and it looks like JUST THE EXIT FEE, is actually 3x the per-school yearly league tv payout - back in 2012 when the increase was agreed to it would have been $52M. So our 2021 payout was basically $35M. But once you pay the exit fee you can leave the following year. So we're actually talking $105M just for the exit fee. Thats just a *no-matter-what* cost.

*When Maryland left they sued and settled on only paying 60% of the 3x payout number that they should have. But they also announced they were leaving like 2 weeks after this increase was approved...

So Exit Fee + GOR = 17 Years of ACC Payouts.

Our Total ESTIMATED value per school over 14 years until GOR ends is estimated to be about $743M total in the ACC ($53.05M/yr for 14 years). That means if the agreement was paid in full - Exit Fee + 14yrGOR, we're talking $847.8M to exit the ACC - which is just ridiculous, when the most any school has EVER paid to leave a conference is like Maryland at ~$30M! Basically we can guarantee that isn't happening. However like I said Maryland settled to pay ~60% of what they technically owed to exit. If we did that same thing, that would mean it would cost us $508.7M to leave the ACC. But Like you said even $300M would be pretty crazy high - That would be us paying each remaining ACC school $23M for us to leave!

In the SEC the current ESTIMATED value per school over the next 14 years is about $1,318M total ($94.2M/yr for 14 years). That means as long as the Exit fee from the ACC were less than $530M, we would be net ahead after 14 years in the switch. So *IF we did that 60% option, Since $508.7M < $530M, this switch would actually technically still work out in our favor. However like you said even a $300M fee to exit would be kinda crazy - 10x the highest ever paid to be exact. So at a $300M exit (an estimated 6-7yr ACC per-school payout value), the gain in joining the SEC would be about $275M or $19.7M/yr over 14yrs. (how much do stadiums cost? Well an extra quarter billions would go a long way...)

The straight up difference in value between being in the SEC over the next 14 years vs the ACC is estimated to be about $41M/yr, Which is just ******* insane. So basically just determine how many years worth is reasonable for us to pay to leave the ACC (IF we ONLY had to pay the exit fee, it'd be 3 years worth), subtract that from 14, and multiply by $41M, and you got our net gain by being in the SEC. And actually it's much better than that because I was using averages, and the payouts are substantially less over the next 3 years than they are estimated to be going forward - so it's MUCH less of a problem to be in the ACC for the next 2-3 years than it would be 10 years from now. That also means it's a much better discount to leave now than later. For instance on an avg payout basis, $300M is 5.66 ACC payout-years. But in reality, if you're basing it on 2021 payout, that is 8.6yrs payout-years worth - which you can argue is 60% of the remaining contract years if you are trying to settle...even though I just showed the actual estimated value at 60% is $500M...

Whatever deal we make, it won't be a lump-sum payment - unless we reach a settlement on doing that for substantially less money. So if we pay yearly, I guess we could always hope the ACC crumbles without us paying much as well lol. Oh and btw remember how we increased our Football yearly budget by $20-30M/yr, and it led to this major ******* change in the program trajectory? Well switching to the SEC would guarantee that extra money in the budget for the next decade - it wouldn't be reliant on the will of the President/BOT...

 
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Was just looking at the ACC exit fee, and it looks like JUST THE EXIT FEE, is actually 3x the per-school yearly league tv payout - back in 2012 when the increase was agreed to it would have been $52M. So our 2021 payout was basically $35M. But once you pay the exit fee you can leave the following year. So we're actually talking $105M just for the exit fee. Thats just a *no-matter-what* cost.

*When Maryland left they sued and settled on only paying 60% of the 3x payout number that they should have. But they also announced they were leaving like 2 weeks after this increase was approved...

So Exit Fee + GOR = 17 Years of ACC Payouts.

Our Total ESTIMATED value per school over 14 years until GOR ends is estimated to be about $743M total in the ACC ($53.05M/yr for 14 years). That means if the agreement was paid in full - Exit Fee + 14yrGOR, we're talking $847.8M to exit the ACC - which is just ridiculous, when the most any school has EVER paid to leave a conference is like Maryland at ~$30M! Basically we can guarantee that isn't happening. However like I said Maryland settled to pay ~60% of what they technically owed to exit. If we did that same thing, that would mean it would cost us $508.7M to leave the ACC. But Like you said even $300M would be pretty crazy high - That would be us paying each remaining ACC school $23M for us to leave!

In the SEC the current ESTIMATED value per school over the next 14 years is about $1,318M total ($94.2M/yr for 14 years). That means as long as the Exit fee from the ACC were less than $530M, we would be net ahead after 14 years in the switch. So *IF we did that 60% option, Since $508.7M < $530M, this switch would actually technically still work out in our favor. However like you said even a $300M fee to exit would be kinda crazy - 10x the highest ever paid to be exact. So at a $300M exit (an estimated 6-7yr ACC per-school payout value), the gain in joining the SEC would be about $275M or $19.7M/yr over 14yrs. (how much do stadiums cost? Well an extra quarter billions would go a long way...)

The straight up difference in value between being in the SEC over the next 14 years vs the ACC is estimated to be about $41M/yr, Which is just ******* insane. So basically just determine how many years worth is reasonable for us to pay to leave the ACC (IF we ONLY had to pay the exit fee, it'd be 3 years worth), subtract that from 14, and multiply by $41M, and you got our net gain by being in the SEC. And actually it's much better than that because I was using averages, and the payouts are substantially less over the next 3 years than they are estimated to be going forward - so it's MUCH less of a problem to be in the ACC for the next 2-3 years than it would be 10 years from now. That also means it's a much better discount to leave now than later. For instance on an avg payout basis, $300M is 5.66 ACC payout-years. But in reality, if you're basing it on 2021 payout, that is 8.6yrs payout-years worth - which you can argue is 60% of the remaining contract years if you are trying to settle...even though I just showed the actual estimated value at 60% is $500M...

Whatever deal we make, it won't be a lump-sum payment - unless we reach a settlement on doing that for substantially less money. So if we pay yearly, I guess we could always hope the ACC crumbles without us paying much as well lol. Oh and btw remember how we increased our Football yearly budget by $20-30M/yr, and it led to this major ******* change in the program trajectory? Well switching to the SEC would guarantee that extra money in the budget for the next decade - it wouldn't be reliant on the will of the President/BOT...

Crazy numbers and definitely not realistic to be paid by anyone. Big factor is ESPN owning the ACC Network and the SEC Network. If they are behind / in agreement with ... Clemson / UM joining the SEC they can make it happen and moderate the economics so no program suffers. Believe the purpose of the GOR (besides trying to ensure the conference remains intact) is to ensure that the program members don't suffer a decrease in monies received due to members departing). ESPN is pretty much in the drivers seat in all of this.
 
The ironic part is I live in Charlottesville and I don't get the ACC Network, but I do get the SEC and B1G networks. Given Xfinity is the only internet option where I live, so with that comes their cable as well. I just hope wherever Miami ends up I can actually watch their games without some backroom streaming option
Xfinity has the ACC network now
 
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