- Joined
- Oct 21, 2011
- Messages
- 15,655
Those are funny numbers. The 33% is probably what I would have put our chances of winning this game - maybe slightly less. It's also our final percentage on 3rd down conversions yesterday. The 73% is probably around where I would have put FSU's chances of winning the game - maybe a couple points higher. It's also their final percentage on 3rd down conversions yesterday.
There's a lot more to be said about why. Frankly, I thought we played defensively about what I expected. I thought we needed to hold them to 35 points to have a chance to win. Sans a couple of plays, we did what we set out to do: keep things in front of us and give our offense a chance to win the game for us. A few plays specifically went bad:
(1) a well-called, but poorly executed defense on the Cover 2 catch of Benjamin over Highsmith. That's not on D'Onofrio.
(2) A predictable, poorly called blitz that came from an obvious launching point, was poorly disguised, was right within our tendencies. Jimbo felt, called the appropriate screen, and it resulted in a 48 yard TD where our defenders barely had a chance. Here's where I talk before the game about my concern over predictable blitzes on 3rd and 7 type of situations (it was called on 2nd and 7, IIRC) where we literally show the blitz:
http://www.canesinsight.com/threads...F-U-on-offense-and-defense/page5?highlight=lu
The play actually failed and I'm not sure if it was run again. It had potential, but a number of things/timing went wrong. Against what we do, if we get into one of those predictable blitz spots, I can see Jimbo reaching back to something like this on a 3rd and 7 or so.
------------------------------------
In any case, the point is that FSU did what we expected them to do offensively and we did what were expected to do defensively. FSU has a good offense and the goal of an opponent should be to hold them between 28 and 35 points. The other side of that is having an offense that can outscore FSU's 35 or so points. Did we have that offense last night? Well, before Duke went down, it was debatable. What would be needed were great decisions by Morris and great strategy by Coley.
I think we got a mixed bag, and I think we'll be able to see it by reviewing every single 3rd down that led to that 33% number.
[TABLE="class: mod-data mod-pbp, width: 100%"]
[TR="class: odd, bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, colspan: 2, align: left"]3rd and 3 at FSU 42[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: left"]Stephen Morris pass complete to Clive Walford for 13 yards to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST down.[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
This is an example of one of the 4 successful 3rd down conversions. More importantly, it's an example of both Morris and Coach Coley doing positive work to get us there. I thought we needed to mix in more throws on 1st down. In this scenario, we did. We used a short pass on 1st down to setup 2nd and 4. Crawford got stuffed on 3rd down for a 1 yard gain, but it put FSU in a bad position. 3rd and 3 from the opponent's 42 yard line in this type of game puts the defense on its heels.
Why? If you decide to run and fall a yard short, you're on the 40 yard line - right in "no man's land" - where the offense may punt or may go for it. In a rivalry game where Miami *has* to score (as we've noted), this makes us more likely to go for it. This makes the defense respect the run and the pass on 3rd and 3.
Morris accurately hit Clive Walford for a 13 yard gain. He did his job and made the throw - even though Clive was strangely nervous/tight last night, apparently.
[TABLE="class: mod-data mod-pbp, width: 100%"]
[TR="class: even, bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: left"]3rd and 2 at FSU 40[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Duke Johnson rush for 7 yards to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST down.[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Another example of one of the 4 successful 3rd down conversions. This also came in the 1st quarter. It was also another example of very nice play calling and good offensive execution. It's no wonder we got positive results. I'm beginning to wonder if Coach Coley, like his mentor Fisher, has a tendency to script his first set of plays. This would be within the first 15. Whatever the case, it was clear this was part of a well-planned strategy.
We got to 3rd and 2 off of two solid runs and play calls. We mixed our style of run here and Duke went 6 yards, 2 yards and 7 yards. Why? Because we once again had FSU in 3rd and short from a tough point in the field (their 40). Similar to the analysis above, where we decided to throw, the defense had to respect both the run and pass.
Anyone who has watched or played football knows that playcalling is about making the defense uncomfortable enough to think and unable to play at full speed. These down and distances are part of the equation. Another part of the equation is the position of the ball on the field. All of this takes a good amount of quick-thinking and/or experience. In addition, it requires execution, or at least the threat of execution, from your QB.
[TABLE="class: mod-data mod-pbp, width: 100%"]
[TR="class: even, bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: left"]3rd and 14 at MIA 18[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Stephen Morris pass complete to Allen Hurns for 30 yards to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST down.[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
And, here we go with placing ourselves in tougher situations. Luckily for us, we had something up our sleeve on this one. How did we get into this spot? Two runs of -2 yards by Duke. For those of you who wanted us to stay away from zone stretch, I mentioned that many of our non-zone plays were still slow developing counters. We saw that come to fruition here. My issue was that we had success with consecutive runs in the prior series. We were only going to have sustainable success against FSU if we continued to keep them off-balance. Why not begin this set of downs with a quick screen in the hopes of getting 4-6? Anyway, let's get back to the 3rd and 14.
Before the game, I drew out a pass that Stephen Morris had to hit. Here is a great example of him hitting that pass (though from the right side of the field instead of the left as is pictured and to Hurns instead of Coley):
It was about finding Hurns between defenders. Going from memory, the LB was actually dropping (instead of in man, being cleared by the RB as in the Clemson picture), so the throw is really kudos to Morris for squeezing it in there. Solid call, better execution.
[TABLE="class: mod-data mod-pbp, width: 100%"]
[TR="class: even, bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: left"]3rd and 16 at MIA 42[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Stephen Morris pass incomplete to Stacy Coley.[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The reality is we'd have a 0% chance of winning if we got ourselves into consistent 3rd and very long situations. How'd we get there? 5 yard penalty on Clive Walford to start the series. My question is why we didn't push a quicker pace here. FSU was on its heels from the long 3rd down conversion and were rife for another 1st down pass. We ran the ball for a 1 yard loss to Duke. On the next play, there was a strange, almost broken type play/throw and incomplete to Hurns. Now we were in a bad spot.
With FSU thinking we'd probably play it safe, we actually made a great call here and got Coley, who I believe is our most talented WR, in a one on one matchup deep. The ball was thrown inside (toward more defense) as Coley drifted outside. Yes, Coley didn't make the perfect adjustment to the ball, and the result is what it is...
[TABLE="class: mod-data mod-pbp, width: 100%"]
[TR="class: odd, bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, colspan: 2, align: left"]3rd and 23 at MIA 12[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: left"]Stephen Morris pass complete to Herb Waters for 1 yard to the MiaFl 13.[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Not a lot to say about the actual play here because we were deep in their zone and just wanted to stay alive. It was 21-7 with 5 minutes remaining in the first half. What I would like to talk about on this scenario that got us into 3rd and 23 is that the playcalling was not that bad and probably not to blame here. Duke ran for a yard on 1st down. As you can see, almost every scenario so far that led to a 3rd down started from a run on 3rd down.
I'm repeating myself, but I think there are some "safe" throws that we could have used on 1st down more often. I imagine this was a coaching decision to play things close. Problem was we weren't playing the University of Florida (or even Virginia Tech next week). We likely needed to score more than 35 to win this game.
Moving along, on 2nd down we took a 14 yard loss on a sack. Going from memory, I have to attribute the sack to Morris. It was a good playcall with good initial protection. The protection was, in fact, solid enough for Morris to literally look down to his check down, who was covered. He was then unable to make a move to escape Mario Williams, who had gotten away from Mcdermott. I don't expect Mcdermott to hold his block that long and I expect Morris to either throw the ball away there or make a quicker decision to run. The entire right side of the field (the checkdown was to the left) had been cleared.
I realize his ankle may not be a full go (though we're told otherwise?). He needs to take 6-8 yards more often. It would have placed us in 3rd and 4. That's a totally different scenario.
[TABLE="class: mod-data mod-pbp, width: 100%"]
[TR="class: odd, bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, colspan: 2, align: left"]3rd and 10 at FSU 25[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: left"]Stephen Morris rush for 9 yards to the FlaSt 16.[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
This is what I asked Morris to do above on 2nd and 11. Not going to get into this debate here, but I cringed a little that Morris would step out of bounds 1 yard shy on 3rd and 10. I realize FSU had two guys there, but maybe try to dive to the floor? I don't know. Point is we got the first down on the next play, so this didn't make a huge difference.
[TABLE="class: mod-data mod-pbp, width: 100%"]
[TR="class: even, bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: left"]3rd and 8 at MIA 44[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Stephen Morris sacked by Terrence Brooks for a loss of 13 yards to the MiaFl 31, MIAMI FL penalty 0 yard Intentional Grounding onStephen Morris accepted.[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The situation was setup by two plays: another 1st down run by Duke Johnson for a short gain and, unfortunately, a complete miss on 2nd down. On 2nd and 8, Morris had Waters open over the middle in between zone defenders. He tried to fire the ball in at probably a literal 80MPH. Being slightly off, the ball was not caught. It was a great opportunity at a great part of the field. The call was great. The execution did not happen.
On 3rd down, if all of you remember, FSU showed blitz from the left side of our formation. We saw it and checked. FSU saw our check and checked their blitz to the other side. We didn't account for it. I found it unfortunate that this scenario occurred at least 3 times during the game. FSU would show blitz, we'd check, FSU would literally signal kill (a choke signal) and take away their blitz. At that point, the defense is ahead of the offense instead of the other way around. We didn't seem to have any "fake" checks to stay ahead of them.
The result was that Brooks came in and did what FSU has done all year: bring pressure from beyond the front 4. Morris was sacked.
[TABLE="class: mod-data mod-pbp, width: 100%"]
[TR="class: even, bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: left"]3rd and 5 at FSU 29[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Duke Johnson rush for 3 yards to the FlaSt 26.[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
I didn't mind this play call knowing that we'd almost assuredly have two plays because of the situation in the game. We were down 21, but I think still had a puncher's chance if we score to make it a 14 point game going into the 4th quarter. Nonetheless, we could have called two quick plays instead of 1. We got into a 4th and short, tried to audible and ran a power play right into the teeth of their defense. We failed to convert and Duke got hurt. Terrible result all the way around.
[TABLE="class: mod-data mod-pbp, width: 100%"]
[TR="class: odd, bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, colspan: 2, align: left"]3rd and 7 at MIA 45[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: left"]Stephen Morris pass intercepted by Nate Andrews at the FlaSt 31, returned for no gain to the FlaSt 31.[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
An interesting play from a number of different angles. The down and distance aren't atrocious. We were seemingly playing catchup here with our own previous deficiencies. Many have called for more usage of the middle of the field. Here, the ball was literally forced to Walford in the middle of the field. A defender trailed and a Safety was over the top of him anyway. It led to Morris basically underthrowing the ball on purpose to see if Walford could make some special play.
How do I know the ball was forced? Watch the broadcast of the game. They show Morris literally telling Walford (sitting on the bench), something along the lines of "I trust you, bro." Pretty obviously, he put that play in the hands of Walford. Morris doesn't seem to connect well on passes that he has to put *between* defenders. If we're to expect our WRs/TEs to transform into Santana Moss climbing over defenders' backs, we're in trouble. Outside of R. Scott, I'm not sure we have someone like that right now (though Coley can eventually develop this, I hope).
[TABLE="class: mod-data mod-pbp, width: 100%"]
[TR="class: odd, bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, colspan: 2, align: left"]3rd and 11 at MIA 44[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: left"]Stephen Morris pass incomplete to Beau Sandland.[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Game was over. No point in getting into this.
[TABLE="class: mod-data mod-pbp, width: 100%"]
[TR="class: odd, bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, colspan: 2, align: left"]3rd and 1 at MIA 40[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: left"]Stephen Morris pass complete to Stacy Coley for 13 yards to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST down.[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Game was over. This padded stats, but no real point in getting into this.
That's yesterday's game - both from numbers, probabilities and a contextual standpoint - in a nutshell.
There's a lot more to be said about why. Frankly, I thought we played defensively about what I expected. I thought we needed to hold them to 35 points to have a chance to win. Sans a couple of plays, we did what we set out to do: keep things in front of us and give our offense a chance to win the game for us. A few plays specifically went bad:
(1) a well-called, but poorly executed defense on the Cover 2 catch of Benjamin over Highsmith. That's not on D'Onofrio.
(2) A predictable, poorly called blitz that came from an obvious launching point, was poorly disguised, was right within our tendencies. Jimbo felt, called the appropriate screen, and it resulted in a 48 yard TD where our defenders barely had a chance. Here's where I talk before the game about my concern over predictable blitzes on 3rd and 7 type of situations (it was called on 2nd and 7, IIRC) where we literally show the blitz:
http://www.canesinsight.com/threads...F-U-on-offense-and-defense/page5?highlight=lu
The play actually failed and I'm not sure if it was run again. It had potential, but a number of things/timing went wrong. Against what we do, if we get into one of those predictable blitz spots, I can see Jimbo reaching back to something like this on a 3rd and 7 or so.
------------------------------------
In any case, the point is that FSU did what we expected them to do offensively and we did what were expected to do defensively. FSU has a good offense and the goal of an opponent should be to hold them between 28 and 35 points. The other side of that is having an offense that can outscore FSU's 35 or so points. Did we have that offense last night? Well, before Duke went down, it was debatable. What would be needed were great decisions by Morris and great strategy by Coley.
I think we got a mixed bag, and I think we'll be able to see it by reviewing every single 3rd down that led to that 33% number.
[TABLE="class: mod-data mod-pbp, width: 100%"]
[TR="class: odd, bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, colspan: 2, align: left"]3rd and 3 at FSU 42[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: left"]Stephen Morris pass complete to Clive Walford for 13 yards to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST down.[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
This is an example of one of the 4 successful 3rd down conversions. More importantly, it's an example of both Morris and Coach Coley doing positive work to get us there. I thought we needed to mix in more throws on 1st down. In this scenario, we did. We used a short pass on 1st down to setup 2nd and 4. Crawford got stuffed on 3rd down for a 1 yard gain, but it put FSU in a bad position. 3rd and 3 from the opponent's 42 yard line in this type of game puts the defense on its heels.
Why? If you decide to run and fall a yard short, you're on the 40 yard line - right in "no man's land" - where the offense may punt or may go for it. In a rivalry game where Miami *has* to score (as we've noted), this makes us more likely to go for it. This makes the defense respect the run and the pass on 3rd and 3.
Morris accurately hit Clive Walford for a 13 yard gain. He did his job and made the throw - even though Clive was strangely nervous/tight last night, apparently.
[TABLE="class: mod-data mod-pbp, width: 100%"]
[TR="class: even, bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: left"]3rd and 2 at FSU 40[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Duke Johnson rush for 7 yards to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST down.[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Another example of one of the 4 successful 3rd down conversions. This also came in the 1st quarter. It was also another example of very nice play calling and good offensive execution. It's no wonder we got positive results. I'm beginning to wonder if Coach Coley, like his mentor Fisher, has a tendency to script his first set of plays. This would be within the first 15. Whatever the case, it was clear this was part of a well-planned strategy.
We got to 3rd and 2 off of two solid runs and play calls. We mixed our style of run here and Duke went 6 yards, 2 yards and 7 yards. Why? Because we once again had FSU in 3rd and short from a tough point in the field (their 40). Similar to the analysis above, where we decided to throw, the defense had to respect both the run and pass.
Anyone who has watched or played football knows that playcalling is about making the defense uncomfortable enough to think and unable to play at full speed. These down and distances are part of the equation. Another part of the equation is the position of the ball on the field. All of this takes a good amount of quick-thinking and/or experience. In addition, it requires execution, or at least the threat of execution, from your QB.
[TABLE="class: mod-data mod-pbp, width: 100%"]
[TR="class: even, bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: left"]3rd and 14 at MIA 18[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Stephen Morris pass complete to Allen Hurns for 30 yards to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST down.[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
And, here we go with placing ourselves in tougher situations. Luckily for us, we had something up our sleeve on this one. How did we get into this spot? Two runs of -2 yards by Duke. For those of you who wanted us to stay away from zone stretch, I mentioned that many of our non-zone plays were still slow developing counters. We saw that come to fruition here. My issue was that we had success with consecutive runs in the prior series. We were only going to have sustainable success against FSU if we continued to keep them off-balance. Why not begin this set of downs with a quick screen in the hopes of getting 4-6? Anyway, let's get back to the 3rd and 14.
Before the game, I drew out a pass that Stephen Morris had to hit. Here is a great example of him hitting that pass (though from the right side of the field instead of the left as is pictured and to Hurns instead of Coley):
It was about finding Hurns between defenders. Going from memory, the LB was actually dropping (instead of in man, being cleared by the RB as in the Clemson picture), so the throw is really kudos to Morris for squeezing it in there. Solid call, better execution.
[TABLE="class: mod-data mod-pbp, width: 100%"]
[TR="class: even, bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: left"]3rd and 16 at MIA 42[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Stephen Morris pass incomplete to Stacy Coley.[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The reality is we'd have a 0% chance of winning if we got ourselves into consistent 3rd and very long situations. How'd we get there? 5 yard penalty on Clive Walford to start the series. My question is why we didn't push a quicker pace here. FSU was on its heels from the long 3rd down conversion and were rife for another 1st down pass. We ran the ball for a 1 yard loss to Duke. On the next play, there was a strange, almost broken type play/throw and incomplete to Hurns. Now we were in a bad spot.
With FSU thinking we'd probably play it safe, we actually made a great call here and got Coley, who I believe is our most talented WR, in a one on one matchup deep. The ball was thrown inside (toward more defense) as Coley drifted outside. Yes, Coley didn't make the perfect adjustment to the ball, and the result is what it is...
[TABLE="class: mod-data mod-pbp, width: 100%"]
[TR="class: odd, bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, colspan: 2, align: left"]3rd and 23 at MIA 12[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: left"]Stephen Morris pass complete to Herb Waters for 1 yard to the MiaFl 13.[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Not a lot to say about the actual play here because we were deep in their zone and just wanted to stay alive. It was 21-7 with 5 minutes remaining in the first half. What I would like to talk about on this scenario that got us into 3rd and 23 is that the playcalling was not that bad and probably not to blame here. Duke ran for a yard on 1st down. As you can see, almost every scenario so far that led to a 3rd down started from a run on 3rd down.
I'm repeating myself, but I think there are some "safe" throws that we could have used on 1st down more often. I imagine this was a coaching decision to play things close. Problem was we weren't playing the University of Florida (or even Virginia Tech next week). We likely needed to score more than 35 to win this game.
Moving along, on 2nd down we took a 14 yard loss on a sack. Going from memory, I have to attribute the sack to Morris. It was a good playcall with good initial protection. The protection was, in fact, solid enough for Morris to literally look down to his check down, who was covered. He was then unable to make a move to escape Mario Williams, who had gotten away from Mcdermott. I don't expect Mcdermott to hold his block that long and I expect Morris to either throw the ball away there or make a quicker decision to run. The entire right side of the field (the checkdown was to the left) had been cleared.
I realize his ankle may not be a full go (though we're told otherwise?). He needs to take 6-8 yards more often. It would have placed us in 3rd and 4. That's a totally different scenario.
[TABLE="class: mod-data mod-pbp, width: 100%"]
[TR="class: odd, bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, colspan: 2, align: left"]3rd and 10 at FSU 25[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: left"]Stephen Morris rush for 9 yards to the FlaSt 16.[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
This is what I asked Morris to do above on 2nd and 11. Not going to get into this debate here, but I cringed a little that Morris would step out of bounds 1 yard shy on 3rd and 10. I realize FSU had two guys there, but maybe try to dive to the floor? I don't know. Point is we got the first down on the next play, so this didn't make a huge difference.
[TABLE="class: mod-data mod-pbp, width: 100%"]
[TR="class: even, bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: left"]3rd and 8 at MIA 44[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Stephen Morris sacked by Terrence Brooks for a loss of 13 yards to the MiaFl 31, MIAMI FL penalty 0 yard Intentional Grounding onStephen Morris accepted.[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The situation was setup by two plays: another 1st down run by Duke Johnson for a short gain and, unfortunately, a complete miss on 2nd down. On 2nd and 8, Morris had Waters open over the middle in between zone defenders. He tried to fire the ball in at probably a literal 80MPH. Being slightly off, the ball was not caught. It was a great opportunity at a great part of the field. The call was great. The execution did not happen.
On 3rd down, if all of you remember, FSU showed blitz from the left side of our formation. We saw it and checked. FSU saw our check and checked their blitz to the other side. We didn't account for it. I found it unfortunate that this scenario occurred at least 3 times during the game. FSU would show blitz, we'd check, FSU would literally signal kill (a choke signal) and take away their blitz. At that point, the defense is ahead of the offense instead of the other way around. We didn't seem to have any "fake" checks to stay ahead of them.
The result was that Brooks came in and did what FSU has done all year: bring pressure from beyond the front 4. Morris was sacked.
[TABLE="class: mod-data mod-pbp, width: 100%"]
[TR="class: even, bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: left"]3rd and 5 at FSU 29[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Duke Johnson rush for 3 yards to the FlaSt 26.[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
I didn't mind this play call knowing that we'd almost assuredly have two plays because of the situation in the game. We were down 21, but I think still had a puncher's chance if we score to make it a 14 point game going into the 4th quarter. Nonetheless, we could have called two quick plays instead of 1. We got into a 4th and short, tried to audible and ran a power play right into the teeth of their defense. We failed to convert and Duke got hurt. Terrible result all the way around.
[TABLE="class: mod-data mod-pbp, width: 100%"]
[TR="class: odd, bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, colspan: 2, align: left"]3rd and 7 at MIA 45[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: left"]Stephen Morris pass intercepted by Nate Andrews at the FlaSt 31, returned for no gain to the FlaSt 31.[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
An interesting play from a number of different angles. The down and distance aren't atrocious. We were seemingly playing catchup here with our own previous deficiencies. Many have called for more usage of the middle of the field. Here, the ball was literally forced to Walford in the middle of the field. A defender trailed and a Safety was over the top of him anyway. It led to Morris basically underthrowing the ball on purpose to see if Walford could make some special play.
How do I know the ball was forced? Watch the broadcast of the game. They show Morris literally telling Walford (sitting on the bench), something along the lines of "I trust you, bro." Pretty obviously, he put that play in the hands of Walford. Morris doesn't seem to connect well on passes that he has to put *between* defenders. If we're to expect our WRs/TEs to transform into Santana Moss climbing over defenders' backs, we're in trouble. Outside of R. Scott, I'm not sure we have someone like that right now (though Coley can eventually develop this, I hope).
[TABLE="class: mod-data mod-pbp, width: 100%"]
[TR="class: odd, bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, colspan: 2, align: left"]3rd and 11 at MIA 44[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: left"]Stephen Morris pass incomplete to Beau Sandland.[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Game was over. No point in getting into this.
[TABLE="class: mod-data mod-pbp, width: 100%"]
[TR="class: odd, bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, colspan: 2, align: left"]3rd and 1 at MIA 40[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: left"]Stephen Morris pass complete to Stacy Coley for 13 yards to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST down.[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Game was over. This padded stats, but no real point in getting into this.
That's yesterday's game - both from numbers, probabilities and a contextual standpoint - in a nutshell.
