We've seen the debate all over the forums- is it better to recruit QBs in high school or the Portal?
Most agree you need both. But in terms of resource allocation, staffs often grapple between spending big in the Portal (with the benefit of college tape) or bidding on elite high school quarterbacks (who offer upside and years of production).
I went back to the first cycle of the Portal (2019) and compiled the Top 10 QBs over a five-year period. For the rankings, I used the 247 Composite score. Some of these players are still playing, so the stats are not complete in some cases. Below is what I found, with transfers in BOLD:
2019
1.
Spencer Rattler
STATS: 10,807 yards (8.2 YPA), 77 TDs, 32 INTs, 16 rushing TDs
DRAFT: 5th Round Pick
SCHOOLS: Oklahoma, South Carolina
2.
Bo Nix
STATS: 15,351 yards (7.9 YPA), 113 TDs, 26 INTs, 38 rushing TDs
DRAFT: 1st round pick
SCHOOLS: Auburn, Oregon
3.
Jayden Daniels
STATS: 12,749 yards (8.9 YPA), 89 TDs, 20 INTs, 34 rushing TDs
DRAFT: 1st round pick
SCHOOLS: Arizona State, LSU
4.
Ryan Hilinksi
STATS: 5,222 yards (6.0 YPA), 21 TDs, 17 INTs, 4 rushing TDs
DRAFT: Undrafted
SCHOOLS: South Carolina, Northwestern
5.
Graham Mertz
STATS: 9,099 yards (7.4 YPA), 64 TDs, 31 INTs, 13 rushing TDs
DRAFT: Draft-eligible this year, not invited to combine
SCHOOLS: Wisconsin, Florida
6. Sam Howell
STATS: 10,283 yards (9.2 YPA), 92 TDs, 23 INTs, 17 rushing TDs
DRAFT: 5th round pick
SCHOOL: UNC
7.
Dylan Morris
STATS: 3,727 yards (7.4 YPA), 20 TDs, 17 INTs, 5 rushing TDs
DRAFT: Undrafted
SCHOOLS: Washington, James Madison
8.
Taulia Tagavailoa
STATS: 11,356 yards (7.9 YPA), 77 TDs, 37 INTs, 13 rushing TDs
DRAFT: Undrafted
SCHOOLS: Alabama, Maryland
9. Max Duggan
STATS: 9,618 yards (7.9 YPA), 73 TDs, 28 INTs, 28 rushing TDs
DRAFT: 7th round pick
SCHOOL: TCU
10.
Taisun Phommachanh
STATS: 3,314 yards (6.4 YPA), 15 TDs, 16 INTs, 8 rushing TDs
DRAFT: Undrafted
SCHOOLS: Clemson, Georgia Tech, Massachusetts
2020
1. Bryce Young
STATS: 8,356 yards (8.8 YPA), 80 TDs, 12 INTs, 7 rushing TDs
DRAFT: First Round
SCHOOL: Alabama
2.
DJ Uiagalelei
STATS: 9,384 yards (7.0 YPA), 61 TDs, 30 INTs, 20 rushing TDs
DRAFT: Not invited to the combine
SCHOOLS: Clemson, Oregon State, Florida State
3. CJ Stroud
STATS: 8,123 yards (9.8 YPA), 85 TDS, 12 INTs, 1 rushing TD
DRAFT: First Round pick
SCHOOL: Ohio State
4.
Hudson Card
STATS: 5,551 yards (6.9 YPA), 35 TDs, 17 INTs, 6 rushing TDs
DRAFT: Not invited to the combine
SCHOOLS: Texas, Purdue
5.
Ja’Quinden Jackson
STATS: Converted to RB, 2,148 yards, 5.5 YPC, 29 TDs
DRAFT: Draftable grade as RB
SCHOOLS: Texas, Utah, Arkansas
6. Luke Doty
STATS: Converted to WR, 140 receiving yards, 1 TD
SCHOOL: South Carolina
8.
Harrison Bailey
STATS: 1,190 yards (7 YPA), 10 TDs, 3 INTs, 2 rushing TDs
SCHOOLS: Tennessee, UNLV, Louisville, Florida
8.
Ethan Garbers
STATS: 4,462 yards (7.5 YPA), 31 TDs, 18 INTs, 3 rushing TDs
DRAFT: Not invited to combine
SCHOOLS: Washington, UCLA
9.
Haynes King
STATS: 6,535 yards (7.6 YPA), 51 TDs, 28 INTs, 22 rushing TDs
SCHOOLS: Texas A&M, Georgia Tech
10.
Jay Butterfield
STATS: 103 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs
DRAFT: Out of football
SCHOOLS: Oregon, San Jose State
2021
1.
Quinn Ewers
STATS: 9,128 yards (8.0 YPA), 68 TDs, 24 INTs, 8 rushing TDs
DRAFT: Will be drafted
SCHOOLS: Ohio State, Texas
2.
Caleb Williams
STATS: 10,082 yards (9.2 YPA), 93 TDs, 14 INTs
DRAFT: First round pick
SCHOOLS: Oklahoma, USC
3.
Sam Huard
STATS: 265 yards (6.0 YPA), 1 TD, 4 INTs
SCHOOLS: Washington, Utah, USC
4.
Brock Vandagriff
STATS: 1,758 yards (7.4 YPA), 12 TDs, 8 INTs
DRAFT: Out of football
SCHOOLS: Georgia, Kentucy
5. JJ McCarthy
STATS: 6,226 yards (8.7 YPA), 49 TDs, 11 INTs, 10 rushing TDs
DRAFT: First round pick
SCHOOL: Michigan
6.
Kyle McCord
STATS: 8,555 yards (8.6 YPA), 61 TDs, 20 INTs, 3 rushing TDs
DRAFT: Will be drafted
SCHOOLS: Ohio State, Syracuse
7.
Ty Thompson
STATS: 655 yards (6.2 YPA), 9 TDs, 7 INTs, 6 rushing TDs, Switched positions to tight end
SCHOOLS: Oregon, Tulane
8.
Jake Garcia
STATS: 2,376 yards (7.7 YPA), 15 TDs, 16 INTs, 2 rushing TDs
SCHOOLS: Miami, East Carolina
9. Drake Maye
STATS: 8,018 yards (8.4 YPA), 63 TDs, 16 INTs, 16 rushing TDs
DRAFT: First round pick
SCHOOL: North Carolina
10.
Jaxson Dart
STATS: 11,970 yards (9.2 YPA), 81 TDs, 27 INTs, 14 rushing TDs
DRAFT: Will be drafted
SCHOOLS: USC, Ole Miss
2022
1. Cade Klubnick
STATS: 7,180 yards (6.9 YPA), 57 TDs, 18 INTs, 13 rushing TDs
SCHOOL: Clemson
2.
Conner Weigman
STATS: 2,694 yards (7.4 YPA), 19 TDs, 7 INTs, 2 rushing TDs
SCHOOLS: Texas A&M, Houston
3. Ty Simpson
STATS: 381 yards (7.6 YPA), 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 3 rushing TDs
SCHOOL: Alabama
4. Drew Allar
STATS: 6,302 yards (7.5 YPA), 53 TDs, 10 INTs, 11 rushing TDs
SCHOOL: Penn State
5.
Walker Howard
STATS: 63 yards (6.3 YPA), 0 TDs, 0 INTs
SCHOOLS: LSU, Ole Miss, Louisiana Lafayette
6.
Devin Brown
STATS: 331 yards (6.9 YPA), 3 TDs, 1 INT, 1 rushing TD
SCHOOLS: Ohio State, California
7. Gunner Stockton
STATS: 588 yards (7.1 YPA), 3 TDs, 2 INTs
SCHOOL: Georgia
8. Sam Horn
STATS: 54 yards (6.8 YPA), 1 TD, 1 INT
SCHOOL: Missouri
9.
Nick Evers
STATS: 918 yards (5.1 YPA), 5 TDs, 5 INTs, 3 rushing TDs
SCHOOLS: Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Connecticut
10.
Brady Allen
STATS: 15 yards (3.8 YPA), 0 TDs, 0 INTs
SCHOOLS: Purdue, Louisville
2023
1. Arch Manning
STATS: 969 yards (10.2 YPA), 9 TDs, 2 INTs, 4 rushing TDs
SCHOOL: Texas
2. Nico Iamaleava
STATS: 2,930 yards (7.7 YPA), 21 TDs, 5 INTs, 6 rushing TDs
SCHOOL: Tennessee
3.
Dante Moore
STATS: 1,659 yards (7.5 YPA), 11 TDs, 9 INTs
SCHOOLS: UCLA, Oregon
4.
Jackson Arnold
STATS: 1,984 yards (6.3 YPA), 16 TDs, 6 INTs, 4 rushing TDs
SCHOOLS: Oklahoma, Auburn
5.
Malachi Nelson
STATS: 128 yards (6.4 YPA), 0 TDs, 1 INTs
SCHOOLS: USC, Boise State, UTEP
6. Christopher Vizzina
STATS: 34 yards (5.6 YPA, 0 TDs, 0 INTs
SCHOOL: Clemson
7.
Jaden Rashada
STATS: 485 yards (5.9 YPA), 4 TDs, 3 INTs
SCHOOLS: Florida, Arizona State, Georgia, Currently in Portal
8.
Eli Holstein
STATS: 2,228 yards (7.7 YPA), 17 TDs, 7 INTs, 3 rushing TDs
SCHOOLS: Alabama, Pittsburgh
9. Avery Johnson
STATS: 3,191 yards (7.3 YPA), 30 TDs, 10 INTs, 14 rushing TDs
SCHOOL: Kansas State
10. Austin Novosad
STATS: 59 yards (4.5 YPA), 0 TDs, 0 INTs
SCHOOL: Oregon
TAKEAWAYS
They're likely to hit the Portal
Most Top 10 quarterbacks don't work out for the team that signs them. Of the 50 quarterbacks in this study, 33 of them (66%) jumped in the Portal.
More may join them in the '22 and '23 classes. Of the 17 who stayed, five have yet to play meaningful snaps. So that leaves about 24% who developed into permanent starters for the team that signed them.
The cream of the crop projects differently
From an evaluation standpoint, there was a significant difference in Top 3 quarterbacks and the quarterbacks ranked 4-10.
Of the nine Top 3 quarterbacks who have completed four years, seven (78%) of them have been drafted. Five of the nine (56%) were first rounders.
However, the Top 3 recruits didn't all work out at their first stop. Of the seven drafted, five (71%) transferred before getting to the NFL.
The lower seven had significantly less success. Of the 21 quarterbacks who completed four years of college and ranked outside of the Top 3, only 4 (19%) got drafted.
For purposes of this analysis, I'm projecting Quinn Ewers as getting drafted on Day 2 or 3.
CONCLUSION
My big takeaway: if you're going to spend on a top high school QB, he should be in the Top 3. Don't get into bidding wars for the other guys. And even then, you need a plan to make sure that Top 3 QB doesn't collect big checks and hop in the Portal before producing. The Top 3 QBs are also attractive Portal candidates, even if they had ups and downs at their prior stops (see Daniels and Nix). The talent is usually there.
While the odds are against a top high school QB starting long-term for the team he signs with, the ones that do have a ton of success. Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, Max Duggan, Sam Howell, Drake Maye, JJ McCarthy, Cade Klubnick and Drew Allar are some prime examples. But of course, there is selection bias- the guys that stay are most likely to have succeeded early.
Overall, I think we should allocate most of our QB money to the Portal or retaining young starters. High schoolers are too volatile. Of the Top 10 QBs in the 2025 NFL Draft per CBS, nine of them are transfers. You have a better idea of what you're going to get and how they fit into your system. Get affordable players with traits out of high school, and if they hit, then you pay them.
Comment below with your strategy for attacking the QB position.
