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Ahead of Schedule? - A Look At Recruiting Classes Ten Months Before NSD

GojiraCane

GojiraCane

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With a highly ranked recruiting class for 2020 accrued so far, I thought that it might be interesting to see where we were on the April 7th in the year prior to National Signing Day. The numbers below do not take into account players who were committed to us and then decided to go elsewhere. Rather, of the players who signed each February, I wanted to see how many of them were on board at this point of the year.

Historically, the numbers are incredibly small. The best rate of success was in 2018, when Mark Richt had 40% of his class locked up and committed as of April of 2017. Worst was 2011, where a recruiting class collapse during the 2010 season saw players like Teddy Bridgewater decommit. Only 5% of the signing class ended up aboard in April of 2010.

What does this mean for the 2020 class? Obviously, expect attrition in the class for starters. Secondarily, a lot will change between now and the fall when it comes to bringing in additional talent.

One last note on the Signing Class numbers - these do include transfers.

82966
 
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Good post.

I just find it humorous that people thump their chest (not saying you're doing this) on this board and on twitter about Miami's recruiting class being ranked where it's ranked, and we go through this every single year. Miami is not going to sign a Top 5 class in 2020. Probably not even really anywhere close. I get that there's really not a lot else to talk about in the spring, but for the life of me I can't understand why people do this year aftr year after year. Like this doesn't happen every single class. Do people have selective memories? They just like talking ****? They're retarded? It blows my mind.

Miami is just not deep enough in the game right now with the elite of the elite to sign a Top 5 class. And that's not the end of the world. There's no rule that says you have to have a Top 5 class to accomplish your goals. But it's not going to happen. I would say Miami fans should be shooting for anything inside the Top 12. I think that'd be a win with how this class is shaping up.

NOW....the 2021 class. Go nuts. Swing for the fences. That can be a legit Top 5 class, because of how many elite kids are in the state, especially South Florida. If Miami wins big this year, 2021 can be the best class in the last 15 years. But it's not going to happen in 2020. However, it can and should still be an excellent first class for Manny.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Good post.

I just find it humorous that people thump their chest (not saying you're doing this) on this board and on twitter about Miami's recruiting class being ranked where it's ranked, and we go through this every single year. Miami is not going to sign a Top 5 class in 2020. Probably not even really anywhere close. I get that there's really not a lot else to talk about in the spring, but for the life of me I can't understand why people do this year aftr year after year. Like this doesn't happen every single class. Do people have selective memories? They just like talking ****? They're retarded? It blows my mind.

Miami is just not deep enough in the game right now with the elite of the elite to sign a Top 5 class. And that's not the end of the world. There's no rule that says you have to have a Top 5 class to accomplish your goals. But it's not going to happen. I would say Miami fans should be shooting for anything inside the Top 12. I think that'd be a win with how this class is shaping up.

NOW....the 2021 class. Go nuts. Swing for the fences. That can be a legit Top 5 class, because of how many elite kids are in the state, especially South Florida. If Miami wins big this year, 2021 can be the best class in the last 15 years. But it's not going to happen in 2020. However, it can and should still be an excellent first class for Manny.
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Miami’s best case recruiting wise in this current land$cape is what we did in 2018 filled with a couple of elite out of state recruiting gets in addition to about 5 elite in state recruiting gets (lingard, Silvera, Pope, Hall, scaife) and a bevy of solid 4 Stars gets in the state. If we continue that model and accumulate that annually we will be just fine imo and the talent would really stack up nicely
 
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Coker’s best class on paper was his worst class on the field. 2004. Shannon’s best class on paper was ‘08, and it ended up being significantly flawed and overrated.

Manny needs to evaluate well, prioritize well, focus on the right battles to fight, win his share of battles, and we’ll be fine. A class in the top 12 would be a solid outcome. Won’t put it past Manny to exceed expectations this cycle, but agree with the poster above who notes that ‘21 is the class to reset expectations of how Miami can recruit.
 
Ethnicsands said:
Coker’s best class on paper was his worst class on the field. 2004. Shannon’s best class on paper was ‘08, and it ended up being significantly flawed and overrated.

Manny needs to evaluate well, prioritize well, focus on the right battles to fight, win his share of battles, and we’ll be fine. A class in the top 12 would be a solid outcome. Won’t put it past Manny to exceed expectations this cycle, but agree with the poster above who notes that ‘21 is the class to reset expectations of how Miami can recruit.
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Yeah man it’s why usually the people that have been around a while point more towards roster management when it comes to evaluating recruiting classes up front
 
The way we have underachieved for the past decade plus finishing in the top 10 will be a **** of a close.

Sustained winning and sending kids to the league after development (outside of having a killer bag game/boosters) is what most of the top 5 CONSISTENT teams have that we dont
 
early commits mean very little for 2 reasons #1 recent trend of Fla. players getting an offer from the U to cover their bases(high school girlfriend if you will) #2 to early for the bags to start dropping..... then have to listen to all the feeble excuses when Fla players depart their commitments for $$$$ and SEC
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
8th? I’ll gladly take that bet. No chance.
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Why do you feel somewhere between 8-10 is so absurd? We just finished 8th two classes ago and are killing it right now. Sure the season could change everything but with the assumption we aren't complete dog**** we should finish well.

I'd be more than happy with a top 12-15 finish so long as the classes addresses our numbers appropriately.
 
I can definitely a see a class that finishes between 7th-12th but I'm personally more concerned about addressing our pressing needs at o line, linebacker, and corner since depth is thin at those spots. Gimme 4 good o line prospects, 3 linebackers, and 3 corners. Not too worried about our ability to stack up elsewhere/other positions.
 
Damiencane86 said:
I can definitely a see a class that finishes between 7th-12th but I'm personally more concerned about addressing our pressing needs at o line, linebacker, and corner since depth is thin at those spots. Gimme 4 good o line prospects, 3 linebackers, and 3 corners. Not too worried about our ability to stack up elsewhere/other positions.
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Always have a QB critical, we must learn from history or we’ll be forced to repeat it.

But all other need confirmed.

GOCANES
 
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GOCANES05 said:
Always have a QB critical, we must learn from history or we’ll be forced to repeat it.

But all other need confirmed.

GOCANES
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Yeah, I didn't specifically mention it cuz I felt at this point it was common knowledge. Gotta get a qb every year. With Enos here, I feel good about that happening.
 
305407cane said:
2021 if we can land Harris Williams and brooks that’s three 5-star talents in Dade
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All of them are elite but Brooks is on another level. I saw him play several times and could not believe he was a 10th grader. He was the most gifted player on the field 99% of the time this past year.
 
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mirvin88 said:
Why do you feel somewhere between 8-10 is so absurd? We just finished 8th two classes ago and are killing it right now. Sure the season could change everything but with the assumption we aren't complete dog**** we should finish well.

I'd be more than happy with a top 12-15 finish so long as the classes addresses our numbers appropriately.
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We don’t have that many five and four stars left on the board that we realistically have a shot with. We need probably 15 total so we would need at least 6 more. We would have to hit on almost every one and keep everyone currently committed. It’s not absurd, but it’s definitely not likely
 
Miami is always top 3 in national recruiting in April, then February rolls around and we drop to 12th..... Miami shouldn’t take verbal commitments from players until July/August IMO
 
maurice3p said:
Miami is always top 3 in national recruiting in April, then February rolls around and we drop to 12th..... Miami shouldn’t take verbal commitments from players until July/August IMO
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And then have fans complain about how bad we're recruiting then? You realize how many of the top players have committed by then? We'd literally turn away top targets who want to commit early. You'd rather be fighting to keep them than fighting to flip them. That's just a losers mentality.
 
mirvin88 said:
Why do you feel somewhere between 8-10 is so absurd? We just finished 8th two classes ago and are killing it right now. Sure the season could change everything but with the assumption we aren't complete dog**** we should finish well.

I'd be more than happy with a top 12-15 finish so long as the classes addresses our numbers appropriately.
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There you go. Right now. It's early April. This means nothing when you're talking final rankings next February.

I think 15th would somewhat of a disappointment. Miami is in the game with more than enough kids to get a Top 15 class. But it's just not going to happen to even scare that Top 5. Just not enough talent, on paper, that Miami has realistic chances with to get near that number.

I think 10 would be an outstanding number for Manny this class. And if that happens, it probably means he's winning, and if he's winning and has that much momentum in 2020, then 2021 really can be Top 5.
 
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