2020 By the Numbers: Miami vs. FSU

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Stefan Adams

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It's Miami-FSU week. Ahead of one of college football's most storied rivalries, CIS took a deep-dive and compared the two programs. How do the teams match up in key areas of the game, which players were recruited by their rival school, and how does the series history shake out? Let's find out.


Head-to-Head

Miami Rush Offense vs. FSU Rush Defense


In an admittedly small two-game sample, the Canes are 12th in the country rushing the ball so far in 2020 with 248.5 ypg. RB Cam’Ron Harris has led the way and is third in the country in rushing with 268 yards (10.3 ypc) while showing off plenty of explosion as well; Harris has two runs of 66 yards or more and leads the country with six runs of 15+ yards. QB D’Eriq King (46 rushing yards per game in 2020) also provides a threat on the ground with his legs and will make the FSU defense have to account for him on every play.

Overall, FSU was slightly above average against the run in 2019, coming in at #54 in the nation with 147.5 ypg allowed, although they have a new coordinator in Adam Fuller and a new system in switching from the 3-4 to the 4-3. While Miami’s offensive line looks to have taken a step forward in 2020, the Canes really struggled to run on FSU’s defensive front last season to the tune of just 40 rushing yards, and an FSU defensive line that returns 3 starters is considered the strength of their team in 2020. FSU DT Marvin Wilson (8.5 TFL, 5 sacks in 9 games in 2019) is one of the nation’s most active interior linemen and a probable high NFL Draft pick, but former 5-star DE Joshua Kaindoh (13.5 TFL and 8 sacks in 25 career games) is considered questionable due to a knee injury suffered in Week 1 vs. Georgia Tech. Furthermore, FSU gave up 161 yards rushing in Week 1 against what was a bad Yellow Jackets offense in 2019 that also has a running threat at QB similar to UM. Consistent rushing yardage might be hard to come by for Miami in this one, but UM also has multiple electric weapons that have shown they only need a sliver of daylight to break big plays.

Advantage: Miami


FSU Rush Offense vs. Miami Rush Defense

FSU had one of the worst run games in the country last season (93rd at 140.7 ypg), and that was with second-round NFL Draft pick Cam Akers. The Noles don’t look to have done much to replace Akers, as this might be the least talented Seminoles backfield in quite some time. In his first taste of FBS action, 3-star JUCO recruit La’Damien Webb led FSU in carries with 13 in their Week 1 game vs. Georgia Tech, but failed to do much with them in accounting for just 39 rushing yards against a poor GT defense. FSU’s most dangerous running threat looks to be backup QB Jordan Travis, who subs in as essentially a situational wildcat QB and provides the occasional big play for the Noles (9.9 ypc on 23 carries, 3 TD’s in 2019).

While Miami really struggled in stopping the run vs. a strong Louisville ground game last week by giving up 209 yards, FSU’s run game is nowhere near the level of the Cardinals’. This is also a defense that had success against the Noles last year under DC Blake Baker by holding FSU to just 31 yards on the ground (17th overall in FBS at 114.6 rushing ypg in 2019). Even though Miami is replacing 6 of last season’s starters on the front 7 and the newcomers still have a lot to prove, FSU returns 3 of 5 starters from one of the worst O-Lines in the country last season that has ceded tons of TFL behind the line of scrimmage to Miami’s aggressive defensive front in recent seasons (16 TFL in 2019, 12 TFL in 2018). Nobody in FSU’s backfield really scares you, so expect Miami’s DE’s and LB’s to do what they always do and get up the field to feast on FSU’s weak run game.

Advantage: Miami


Miami Pass Offense vs. FSU Pass Defense

Miami WR’s have struggled early in the season with both drops and getting separation, but UM’s backs and TE’s have shown the ability to help make up for that in the passing game. TE Brevin Jordan looks to be right back in the mix for the Mackey Award with 10 catches for 171 yards and 2 TD’s in his first two games, while Harris (5 catches), Jaylan Knighton (75-yard TD reception), and Will Mallory (17-yard TD reception) have all chipped in as well. King has also been one of most efficient passers in the country thus far with a 160.4 rating, 234.5 ypg passing, completing 63% of his throws, 4 TD’s, and no turnovers. It should be noted that Dee Wiggins (4 catches, 74 yards, TD) also had a strong game against FSU a year ago in a game where Miami threw for 313 yards.

They’ll be going up against an FSU secondary that has been in flux in recent years, but has a star in S Hamsah Nasirildeen (team-leading 101 tackles, 3 PBU, 2 INT, 3 FF in 2019), who is playing in his first game back off an ACL injury. The Noles return 3 of 4 starters from a bad secondary last season (#119 in pass defense at 276.7 ypg) that just gave up 277 yards passing to true freshman GT QB Jeff Sims, who is known for his running ability, in his first career start. This has also been an average FSU pass rush in recent years that only had one sack against a poor GT offensive line in their opener. If edge rushers Kaindoh, Janarius Robinson (3 sacks in 2019), and Amari Gainer (3.5 sacks in 2019) don’t get home against a Miami OL that has only given up 3 sacks in 2020, the Canes are sure to pick this weak FSU secondary apart.

Advantage: Miami


FSU Pass offense vs. Miami Pass Defense

Despite a suspect OL, Florida State actually had one of the better passing attacks in the country last year (#34 at 267.6 ypg). Even with a new offensive system, the Noles return key components of last season's success through the air in QB James Blackmon (42 career TD passes) and WR Tamorrion Terry, who has shown he can really take the top off a defense if given the opportunity (19.6 career ypc). Still, FSU’s passing attack was unable to find much success against Miami last season, passing for just 172 yards as the QB’s had no time to think against a Miami pass rush that recorded 9 sacks. Without last year’s top four pass rushers, though, UM will be hard-pressed to replicate that performance, but there’s plenty of talent in AAC DPOY Quincy Roche and former #1 overall recruit Jaelan Phillips. They’ll need to get home to help out a questionable Miami secondary that has ceded 256 ypg through the air in 2020 thus far. Assuming UM’s pass rush has taken a small step back, this could be the matchup where the Noles make things interesting, as Blackmon has shown he can rack up yards if given time and Terry has the ability to be a game-changer.

Advantage: Even


Miami Special Teams vs. FSU Special Teams

The Seminoles are replacing both their specialists in 2020 with first-year starters. Junior K Parker Grothaus went 2-3 on FG’s with a long of 53 against GT, while freshman P Alex Mastromanno had a strong start with a 48.3 ypp mark vs. the Yellow Jackets. On the flip side, Miami has two proven and experienced specialists in punter Louis Hedley, who made the Ray Guy Award watchlist (45.8 ypp on 9 punts in 2020), and kicker Jose Borregales, who has been a true difference maker so far in 2020 (5-5 FG’s, long of 57). While the Canes are still trying to find an answer at returner, the Noles have return game issues of their own, as established threat DJ Matthews entered the transfer portal just before the season and nobody stood out in Week 1 to replace him.

Advantage: Miami


Roster Notes

FSU Players recruited by Miami (36):
QB James Blackman, WR Warren Thompson, DT Marvin Wilson, DE Josh Kaindoh, DE Janarius Robinson, CB Travis Jay, CB Jarvis Brownlee, LB Leonard Warner, DT Robert Cooper, DT Tru Thompson, DT Cory Durden, DB Cyrus ***an, LB Kalen DeLoach, DB Carlos Becker, DB Asante Samuel, DB Akeem Dent, DL Quashon Fuller, LB Amari Gainer, DB Renardo Green, DT Dennis Briggs, DB Brendan Gant, OL Andrew Boselli, OL Baveon Johnson, OL Dontae Lucas, OL Maurice Smith, LB Emmett Rice, OL Jalen Goss, OL Darius Washington, RB Lawrance Toafili, WR Bryan Robinson, WR Ja’Khi Douglas, WR Kentron Poitier, LB Jayion McCluster, LB Stephen Dix, CB Demorie Tate, S Jadarius Green-McKnight

Miami Players recruited by FSU (25): LB Zach McCloud, RB Robert Burns, OL Navaughn Donaldson, DT Jonathan Ford, LB Bradley Jennings, TE Brevin Jordan, TE Will Mallory, LB Patrick Joyner, CB Al Blades, STRK Gilbert Frierson, S Gurvan Hall, DE Cameron Williams, LB Avery Huff, RB Jaylan Knighton, RB Don Chaney, WR Michael Redding, WR Dazalin Worsham, OL Jalen Rivers, DE Chantz Williams, DL Elijah Roberts, CB Isaiah Dunson, CB Marcus Clarke, S Avantae Williams, S Jalen Harrell, S Keshawn Washington

FSU Players that were committed to Miami (3): CB Jarvis Brownlee, DB Akeem Dent, WR Bryan Robinson

Miami Players that were committed to FSU (5): LB Patrick Joyner, LB Bradley Jennings, RB Jaylan Knighton, CB Isaiah Dunson, S Jalen Harrell

FSU Players from South Florida (13): QB James Blackman (Glades Central), QB Jordan Travis (The Benjamin School), DB Jarvis Brownlee (Carol City), DL Malcolm Ray (Carol City), DB Asante Samuel (St. Thomas), DB Akeem Dent (Palm Beach Central), OL Maurice Smith (Miami Central), LB Emmett Rice (Miami Norland), OL Dontae Lucas (Miami Senior/IMG Academy), WR Bryan Robinson (Palm Beach Central), WR Kentron Poitier (Miami Palmetto), OL Lloyd Willis (Killian), DL Jarrett Jackson (Palm Beach Gardens)


Series History

**
Miami leads the overall series with FSU, 34-30.

**The Canes are currently on a three game-winning streak vs. FSU; the longest ever winning streak in this series was 7 games, something FSU has done twice (1963-1972, 2010-2016).

**The largest margin of victory in this rivalry is 47 points, something both teams have done (47-0 Miami, 1976; 47-0 FSU, 1997).

**The series is known for its close games; for example, from 2014-2018 (5 straight), the game between Miami and FSU was decided by 5 points or less. Among college football rivalries, only Alabama-Auburn and Army-Navy have had such streaks.


Last Time They Played

**
In the 2019 version of this matchup, Miami never trailed and controlled a close game most of the way, before finally pulling away from the Noles by scoring 10 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. UM won their third straight in the series by the final tally of 27-10.

**QB Jarren Williams threw for a career-high 313 yards while adding 2 long-bomb TD passes of 39 and 56 yards to Jeff Thomas and Dee Wiggins, respectively.

**Miami held FSU to just 31 yards rushing and only 203 yards of total offense.

**Miami’s defensive front harassed FSU QB’s Alex Hornibrook and James Blackman all game long, getting to them for a whopping 9 sacks along with 16 TFL. DE Gregory Rousseau had 4 sacks and LB Shaq Quarterman recorded 3.5 TFL.

 
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Looking for a repeat performance, but better!! Hoping the men are properly prepared. Go Canes!!!

And it's a night game on national tv, hoping recruits that are borderline take notice of the mastery on Offense and Defense.... especially on D
 
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