Upon Further Review- Louisville

Lance Roffers
Lance Roffers
18 min read
It has been asked multiple times over the past five years, “Is Miami back?” After Al Golden beat Florida the question was asked. After Mark Richt obliterated Notre Dame on national television, the question was asked again. Saturday night, Miami beat the brakes off Louisville (game wasn’t even as close as the score) and have Gameday coming into town this weekend for Florida State. This week, people will undoubtedly be asking the question again. Is Miami back? Follow along here at Upon Further Review and find out how things look on film.

First play is a cool little crossfire play to get Brevin involved early. Line him up in an offset look in the backfield. Run Cam’Ron in a horizontal look with the entire OL flowing play-side. LB reads his key here and reads a handoff. Play-action and Brevin slips out into the flat uncovered. Louisville wants to be aggressive and Miami did a good job using that against them here.
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On this one, Brevin messes up against pressure. He is head up on #17 and that is his man if he comes. He does and so does the LB. The LB becomes #23’s to block as he’s the second to engage. This is the second consecutive snap Miami went to the unbalanced formation to start this game and Louisville overloaded it with a blitz. For some reason, Brevin comes off of #17 and tries to block the blitzing LB as Harris is going to block him as well, leaving #17 for the sack. Red arrows are how it should go. This way allows #74 to help with his left arm if he’s left clean.
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It is a good thing that Phillips pressured the QB and forced a bad throw because this would’ve been a big play. Frierson takes the cheese on the fly sweep motion and gets sucked down and then falls down trying to get back into this play. Why is Frierson trying to pursue down on this play and leaving his responsibility? He did this on the Tutu play last year when he left his assignment for no reason and it was a TD and had another coverage bust on him here. Frierson’s job on this play is the edge, he has to stay wider than any Louisville player threatening the edge and he did not.
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Jennings is on the field because he is supposed to be a sure tackler and a good run defender. If you’re going to miss this play here, you can’t be on the field. Carter took a false step and is far too inside here. He needs to be a spill player and force that RB back inside on this play and not so easily sealed inside. Run fits, run fits, run fits. Silvera shows his motor again, as he was lined up on the other side of #96 on this play and runs this down, but not after a first down is picked up.
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Frierson has to hold the edge on this play, but instead allows himself to be sealed inside. QB cuts outside and gets down the sideline. I said on the podcast that Cunningham throws right, scrambles left. Miami defenders had to see that on film and know it was a tendency, but they’re beaten by it on the first drive. You see Silvera and his motor again running downfield on this play.
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Frierson is yanked immediately after the above play and Keontra Smith replaces him. Louisville airmails a shotgun snap and the QB retrieves and runs out-of-bounds for a loss of four yards. Smith hits him well out-of-bounds for a bad penalty. (Not pictured)

Phillips is such a good athlete. He takes this low block on the thighs, keeps his balance, gets up and pressures the QB to throw it away. Unfortunately, college football allows these blocks within five yards of the LOS as long as it is from the front. In my opinion, they should outlaw all blocks below the waist. McCloud did not take the cheese on the run action to the other side and stays outside of Atwell on this play and covers it very well.
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Run fits, run fits, run fits. Next play, McCloud steps up into the gap when this RB never presses the hole whatsoever and is going outside all the way. No clue why McCloud filled that gap when the RB didn’t threaten it and he has cutback help behind him. The RB gets by him on this play to the outside. They’re trying to cut Phillips again up top. Dangerous.
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This is a 3rd & 2 and look at what Bolden sees right now. He’s got #41 coming into his area and runs with him, but he correctly diagnoses it as a pass to the RB working into the flat, defeats the block of 41 and makes an excellent tackle. This doesn’t do it justice, but this was an excellent play.
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Love the play design which gets Mallory to loop inside of the outside receiver as a lead blocker on the defender that was covering Wiggins. This leaves the slot CB unblocked, but he’s far away from the play. Simple play, but well-executed.
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Inside Zone is beautiful when the OL gets to the second-level. Look at that cutback lane created by the OL.
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Louisville robs the slant route with an overhang defender and King sees it at just the last second and throws the ball high to Brevin on purpose. Hits Brevin in the hands and he’ll tell you he should catch it. Luckily, it falls to the turf and not into the defender’s arms behind this.
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This, my friends, is coaching and a player executing that coaching to perfection. #85 fakes like he is going to crash down on the DT here and the LB reads this key as a run play with the play-action in the backfield. It’s all eye candy right here and the fake from Mallory is an excellent little detail. Funny thing is the LG/LT are pass blocking and the right side is run blocking, so that key would really tell you it was an RPO, but college defenders probably aren’t savvy enough to see this yet. Really, it’s a pass all the way though, and it’s beautifully executed from start-to-finish with the pass spinning Mallory away from trouble and into the end zone.
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The defense clearly had a plan to force Cunningham to go down the field on long drives and not give up the explosive plays that Louisville thrives on. Here you see a quarters defense and the WR gets Blades to open his hips and run downfield.
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I’m really going to try and limit my screenshots in this review, but I just had to show Phillips use a quick swim and then inside shove to get inside of the RT and make a run stop. #56 might get drafted this year and is a decent player. Phillips is making himself money with showing hand usage at his inexperienced stage.
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Frustrating to see Roche give up the edge on this play. He has him outside just where he should be. Just stay outside, protect the edge, force him back inside and you have a free McCloud coming to fill that gap. He actually jumps back inside of the blocker, completely giving up the edge here, and the RB goes outside. Not a good look for a pass rush specialist trying to prove he can play the run.
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Next play, Roche makes up for it as he smells a rat. This RB needs to sell that pass block fake better, but when he doesn’t even attempt it, Roche sniffs out the screen and comes out onto the RB and the QB has to come off of it and try to scramble. A lot of guys would be frustrated over the previous play and want to kill the QB but a really good job by Roche on a 3rd down. Ford does a good job of getting pressure from his DT position as well.
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We lined Don Chaney out on the boundary and then sent him deep on 1st down. He doesn’t look for the ball on a well-thrown pass, but I’m not sure I’d be asking my true freshman RB to be taking deep shots on the outside. (Not pictured)

I re-watched it a bunch of times and sure enough, Scaife did have a false start on the play that was called back for Mallory. It was his right arm that moved back ever so slightly. (Not pictured)

Long 3rd down pass to Pope on the sideline, they disguised a blitz with cover-3 behind it and dropped the SS back deep into quarters coverage with a 3-man rush. The problem with quarters is that it is exposed to the deep comeback if you don’t get pressure on the QB and that’s exactly what happened. Louisville was trying to rob the deep post from Brevin over the middle and King stayed poised in the pocket.
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Campbell needed to crash down quicker, but the LB jumped the gap on 2nd and 1 and got through. Wish Jakai Clark had helped with his left arm on this play, but he got antsy to get to his own spot (which wasn’t threatened since Louisville slanted their defense the other way). Cam breaks this tackle and gets outside for a huge run. Good defense, Cam just makes a play.
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Harley with drop number one on a stop-route on next play. We need to have the WR’s step up quickly. (Not pictured)

Tried QB run and Louisville just had a perfect run blitz. Jakai Clark pulled around and had two LB’s to block in one gap and he made his block, but the other guy tackled King (not pictured)

Wonderful job by King on this play. 1st read is to the left, then to Mallory in the seam, then to slot, then sees Brevin as his outlet, who breaks a tackle and picks up the 1st down. You’ll see some stuff mentioning the number of times that Louisville played with no one deep in the 2nd half, but this is what caused that. Louisville originally tried to rush three and drop eight into coverage in the 1st half and were shredded on 3rd and long. Louisville tried everything on defense in this one to no avail.
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Flow to field side, hold edge with read option, drop Brevin into slot, only one Louisville defender reads it right and he gets blocked by the WR. Brevin jumps over the other guy out there. Playmakers make plays, but OC’s can design spots to make you even more successful. Both happened here.
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Run fits. Hall tries to jump inside on a fly sweep and the WR gets outside of him with speed. It is your gap outside, Gurvan. Don’t try to do things that aren’t your job. (not pictured)

Smash concept puts the CB in a bind. He has to drop further to stop that corner route, or step up to stop the out route. In reality, he needs to drop back to take away the corner route and then rally up and make a tackle on the shorter route, but he steps forward. Always take the deeper route away, Blades, plus that ball is one that has a higher chance of getting picked off if the QB gets greedy.
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Brooks misses a tackle in the hole at the LOS and it goes for five. Sigh. (not pictured)

3rd-and-5 and a run fit! Great job by McCloud here. You have to get outside of that OL shoulder and into the gap here. He’s got Nesta pursuing down the line to take cutback, Jennings flowing down as well. Phillips sets the edge. Nice play.
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Louisville picks it up on 4th down on an unbalanced line that had leverage. Bad defensive setup there in my mind. Then Louisville runs the option and McCloud does a great job of staying outside and shutting it down. He’s played mostly well in this game. (Not pictured)

Blades, where are you going? This corner area of the end zone is your responsibility. We have the edge handled out there and LB’s coming downhill. Just do your job, defense. Just do your job. Luckily, it was a poor throw and a FG.
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King can’t throw, he’s just a runner. This is moving to his right, over a defender, in front of another, softly into the bucket.
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Had it and just missed the throw because he didn’t set his feet. This was going to be a big play.
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Night of a thousand holds.
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Did you really block Cam Williams with a TE? Fellow freshman Jared Harrison-Hunte meets him at the QB. Look at the QB, drops his eyes to stare at the rush.
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Their RT got away with holding all night. Harvey was the biggest victim of his grabbing. Couch makes a great play to get the QB down on 3rd and long. (not pictured)

King had Brevin another little screen and King kind of dirted it, Brevin kind of dropped it. (not pictured)

Clark picks up the delayed nickel blitz beautifully. His ability to move was really shone off on this play. Allows King to hit Brevin for a 1st down.
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King gives on a read-option when he should’ve kept and the run goes nowhere. Coaches must be telling King to be safe on these. (not pictured)

Clark loses his block and King has to throw it away on 3rd down. (not pictured)

Probably my favorite moment of the entire game. Love this point to the sideline without even looking when he drills a 50+ yard FG.
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Pretty sure Nesta had to get a new jersey after this one was ripped off. McCloud has to get to the outside shoulder on this run and not allow this block. Jennings is a step late to attack this run. They’re diving at Phillips’ knees again.
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OL was literally pulling the jersey from behind on Phillips in the backfield and nothing called. Phillips still makes the tackle. (not pictured)

If it’s me and I see Blades in off-coverage and Blades covering the slot WR (Tutu), I’m running switch route concepts to flood Tutu underneath all night. You just can’t ask Bolden to cover this route. He has no chance to stop the reception and it was honestly a great play to get out there and tackle him in-bounds and short of the 1st down. The other WR is only there to run a clear out and create traffic for Bolden to work through.
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Run the same play to other side to a WR not as fast as Tutu and without the traffic created and Bolden stops it immediately. He’s really played well thus far. (not pictured)

Tried to block Phillips with a TE and that won’t work. Jennings cleans up the mess and gets the credit, but Phillips made the play. Miami had Ragone in at WLB on a 3rd down and I would’ve attacked him if I were Louisville. (not pictured)

Miami goes for a quick strike down the sideline and gets the cover-2 look they expect. King hits Pope perfectly, who drops it. That one hurts and certainly impacts the efficiency of the offense. (not pictured)

Campbell has a false start and then a holding called on the same series. Tough one for him, though he’s had a good season at LT. We at least know the officials know the word “holding” to call it on the other side sometime. (not pictured)

I’d have to ask Lashlee this question, but why is the design to get Williams to block the backside LB here and not frontside? Easy tackle for the unblocked LB.
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Blades reads the eyes of the Louisville QB and gets a pick near midfield. For some reason Miami sits on the ball just before halftime and it was a disappointing last two possessions for Miami. (not pictured)

Nesta gets his jersey pulled off on a stretch run and then completely spun around by the center trying to get a reach block. Borderline shocked that wasn’t called because it was blatant and easy. What I want to call out is how the defense is putting itself out of leverage by how they lined up. The Mike has to be wider than the RB in pistol to have any hope of getting to the gap outside here. He should probably be on the hash to start, or close to it. My guess is he read stretch to the other side based on formation and paid for it.
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Louisville LG actually has his arm under the jersey of Nesta on this play. Not sure I’ve ever seen an OL get away with having his hand under the jersey of the back of the DT, but here we are.
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Right now Miami has a mish-mash of LB’s. You’ve got Jennings, who is a little stouter, but lacking in athleticism, or Brooks/Steed who are both quicker and more athletic, but lacking in mass to hold up. Steed blocked to the ground on an inside zone run (circled). Nesta is going to have a hard working back to the RB when the C is reaching out and grabbing his jersey.
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Roche jumps offsides on 3rd-and-8 and then on a stretch play where he is backside defender he is responsible for scraping down the LOS. Hawkins spins and reverses right by him, when his only responsibility was to not allow that very thing. Just stay deep and force him back into help. Very rough game for Roche outside of the screen play he sniffed out. This goes for a TD. Can’t get mad at Baker when he calls the perfect defense and your player doesn’t execute.
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Miami goes back to unbalanced line, only this time they do it with motion. The motion is the key to making this formation work, when in the first half they ran it three times for negative yards. The CB goes with the WR and Louisville doesn’t replace. They’ve got an edge defender essentially in the 9-technique outside, but he stunts inside and that exposes the edge for a cutback run and that’s exactly what Miami does. Perfect adjustment to the unbalanced formation by using motion and creating an extra gap for the defense to have to cover and they don’t account for it. Look at King, he sees that defender go with the motion and he almost doesn’t want to look the other way because he knows they’ve got it.
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When you spend as much time watching plays back and identifying what is happening with each player as I do, you start to see things you don’t like and I don’t like players diving at the knees of guys. This is dirty. Plain and simple.
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Harvey plays the read-option by baiting the give an using his athleticism to string it out. This was a fantastic play by him. (not pictured)

Jennings has to make this play. In his gap freely, RB in the hole at the same time and Jennings stops his feet when the RB presses the hole. Can’t give up your leverage, this is 4th down! Woof.
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Phillips held badly again.
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Same route as earlier, still not squatting on the corner route with Tutu vs. Bolden. Heck of a throw with Jalar Holley right in his face, but your underneath corner has to help with this and force a sideline throw (which is a tougher throw to hit than a corner route).
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Louisville runs the exact same play as they did earlier in the game where they create traffic and then switch the receivers with Tutu coming underneath him. There is no chance Bolden can cover this to the outside no matter what he does. They need to switch this and hit Tutu when he tries to come underneath (which is legal as long as ball isn’t in air). Tutu is just far too fast.
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Unbalanced formation again causes Louisville to lose track of that gap. King sells the fake up, LB watches him and bites, Knighton slips out, it’s over from there. Whoopsies.
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Essentially, Miami cruised from here.
 

Comments (67)

Unbalanced Formation:

Quickly want to touch on unbalanced formations, what they are, and what they hope to accomplish since Miami hit for two big plays in this game with them.

What is an unbalanced formation?

Quite simply it is a formation where one side of the formation does not have a receiver split out wide.

Why do coaches use an unbalanced formation?

  • Coaches will use an unbalanced formation to get an extra blocker on the perimeter. Imagine a fly sweep when a single receiver to one side goes in motion and all the receivers are split out wide to the other side. There is another blocker on the perimeter to execute this play. Toss sweep, stretch plays, outside zone runs, and even something like a speed option can use the extra blocker to that side.
  • An unbalanced formation creates an extra gap for the defense to defend. If you think of the traditional, A-gap, B-gap, C-gap responsibilities, the unbalanced formation creates an extra gap outside of that for the defense to contain. Additionally, when using motion to get into an unbalanced formation, the defender who is responsible for the outside gap to the side of the formation without a receiver is now removed and the defense must replace him. This is unusual for a defense to replace an outside gap defender and can lead to miscommunication or mistakes. This is what happened twice to Louisville where they didn’t replace the gap defender.
  • Defenses do not practice against unbalanced formations very often and can get lost in their responsibility to the other side. We saw this with Brevin getting a favorable matchup when the defense didn’t account for all receivers to that side correctly.
  • This formation hurts the defense regardless of front. As an odd front defense, the NT can’t line up over center any more because the gap responsibilities have changed due to an extra gap inserted and the NT has to play over the strong guard (guard towards the strength of the formation). If you run an even front, the 3-technique now lines up over your center or over your tackle (due to gap changes). It changes the alignment for the entire defense and makes them uncomfortable.
  • Motion creates instant alignment problems that the defense has to account for on their own through communication and preparation. Boise State uses a ton of motion to get into unbalanced formations and then run into the formation. Additionally, you can run power out of this alignment and pull a guard around to unbalanced side and have an additional edge blocker, allowing your RT to downblock on the edge and create a wedge. We saw this on a big Cam Harris play when the receiver ran a clear out route across the field (essentially creating an unbalanced formation after the snap by running the defender out of that side of the field).
By the numbers:

Miami was an explosive offense in this game and that shows itself in the success rates and explosiveness data. One of the limitations of success rates is that it is binary. A run of six yards on 1st & 10 is a 100% success rate the same way that a 75-yard TD run on 1st & 10 is a 100% success rate. Both are 1-for-1, but obviously have far different impacts on the game.

  • Louisville won the success rate battle by a wide margin of 47.1% to 32.2%
  • Miami held a .152 EPA/Play margin (huge difference)
  • Miami was far more explosive in this game than Louisville and was the reason they won the game
You will read a lot of advanced analytics sites this week speak to a fluky game for Miami and while it is absolutely true that Miami capitalized on big plays to score TD’s, it is also true that there are a few additional factors to consider:

  • Miami runs a high-tempo offense, which in my view will tend to have a higher level of variance than a traditional pace would. This is due to coverage busts and miscommunication in the defense, balanced out some by additional false start penalties and busted run plays that get one or two yards.
  • Let’s say that Knighton drops the pass on his big play, or Harris trips over his feet on his. Miami doesn’t just give the ball back to Louisville on the drive. They’d still be expected to have a certain number of points on those drives and still have chances to score touchdowns. Removing these plays from your analysis and then acting as though Louisville just gets the ball otherwise is faulty analysis.
  • I see several analytics sites removing the Miami big plays and then telling you the game was closer than you think, they are also failing to adjust for personnel usage. If those plays do not happen, and Miami has to punt the football etc. then they would not be playing third stringers in the 4th quarter when they were up 40-20. They would not be calling basic shell defenses designed to keep Louisville in-bounds and the clock moving with safe defense.
  • I have built a simple model designed to show what the score “should” have been based on starting field positions and changes to field position from each subsequent play. Based on this model, Miami would have been expected to win the game from any standpoint you want to produce.
  • Football Outsiders- in particular- put out a hit piece against Miami in this game by stating, “contributing to the overinflated perception of Miami’s performance is the fact that Louisville inexplicably missed a wide-open touchdown, coming away with field goals on two drives where they had first downs inside the Hurricanes’ 25-yard line. Did they miss the part where Miami dropped their own wide-open touchdown by Harley? Or the multiple other drops by Miami receivers? “If Miami can figure out how to move the ball without relying on fluke plays.”
Overall, it is true that Miami cannot simply rely on explosive plays to win games and will need to find ways to improve their efficiency and overall drive sustainability. I just think there is some one-sidedness being employed with some of these arguments.

Standouts:

D’Eriq King-
He played exactly the way you would hope to see him play in this game by making smart throws, avoiding turnover-worthy plays, and being a leader on the field.

Cam’Ron Harris- His night was cut short when he landed awkwardly in the end zone, but before that he showed off speed I didn’t know he had by hitting 22.0 mph on his long run. That was the top speed registered by a RB this season thus far and will undoubtedly make him some money with the folks in NFL scouting circles who saw him more as a bruiser at the RB position.

Jaelen Phillips- This young man displayed incredible athleticism and toughness in this game. Held all night long, chopped into his knees all night long, he continued to pursue the edge and cause trouble for the Louisville QB.

Lashlee- From a pure statistical perspective, untouched 75-yard plays are outliers, but there was an element of scheme that went into those plays and the feel he showed in calling this game was excellent.

Coach Diaz- Road games against ranked opponents haven’t exactly been Miami’s forte over the years and he had the team ready to go. Additionally, he had a practice for the team to get their attention regarding all the penalties rather than just letting them enjoy all the praise after a win. Might mean nothing, but it might be exactly what the team needs, as well.

Bubba Bolden- He gave up some plays to a WR who will go in the top-50 picks of the NFL draft, but he also showed tackling skills, communication ability, and a resiliency in a tough matchup. Liked the way he plays the game.

Hoping for more:

Blake Baker-
I’d like to see a better adjustment to what Louisville was doing with their receiver alignments and move to a pattern match coverage that allows the CB to come off and switch with the Atwell when he comes into his coverage zone. Mixing and matching of personnel continues as Miami searches for answers in their LB group.

Run Fits- I just continue to see woeful understanding of gaps and how to do your job on defense by the LB’s.

Quincy Roche- Not a terrible night, but you hope for more from this talented transfer. Lost contain on a 3rd down run that he was standing right there that went for a long touchdown (and I have seen nary a mention of how that is an outlier play for Louisville). Lost his gaps on several run fits outside. He made a great play on a screen that got Louisville off the field in the 1st quarter.

Ford- Continues to disappoint inside at the NT position and had little impact on a game against a team that wants to run the ball. Outside zone and stretch runs will not be his forte to defend, but we need to see more production from Ford to be a great team.

Penalties- Whether it be a false start, or late hits, or holding penalties, Miami had far too many of them.

Officials- I got tired of showing screenshots of holding by the Louisville OL, but add to it the dirty blocks they were making at the knees of Miami defenders, I feel the officials let far too much go along the OL for Louisville and it contributed to a dirty game that saw Louisville chirping at the end. Louisville wanted to talk on their field after the game and that is traditionally a “to the victors go the celebration” area. If Louisville wants to meet and have a discussion, go inside to your locker room.

Overall:
It was fun to watch Miami perform on a big stage against an opponent I think will win eight games, on a night stage, with them having Gameday in town. Despite what Football Outsiders will tell you, Miami was clearly the better team in this game and had a better game plan than Louisville did. Their coaching staff tried it both ways, they tried playing soft rush and coverage behind it and got eaten up. In the second half, they tried to play a lot of zero coverage (no safeties deep) and attacking defense, which ended in coverage busts and people wanting to remove those plays from their future projections. To me, Miami showed they could beat you either way you wanted them to on offense in this game.

Defensively, Miami was content to sit back, force Louisville to drive the length of the field on offense and remove their explosive plays. It worked in the first half. In the second half, Louisville moved Atwell into the slot and ran switch routes to get the coverage matchup they wanted on a safety. Louisville put the backside CB and Sin a bind with corner/out combos and we played it poorly each time. Coach Baker did not adjust on this change from Louisville and it cost them some points.
 
Great stuff as always, Lance. I agree about the “outlier” scores that some people are making a big deal about. I mean Louisville has 4 second half touchdowns. One was a ridiculous play where the running back spun out of a big tackle for loss, reversed field and outran everyone to the end zone. The last two came against second and third team defenders. It doesn’t excuse a lot of sloppy play by Miami’s defense but football plays aren’t happening in a vacuum and these factors need to be considered.
 
Another insightful take on the game Saturn night past. Nevertheless, I don't SEE-r Miami getting any break from the conference officials the rest of the season. Which is a tragedy and what not. So Miami fan should continue to witness the holds and CHEAP SHOT blocks below the knees. Ouch.

Also, Mr. L is on the radar regarding Miami's DC. The DC had TROUBLE adjusting at intermission last season, too!! Nonetheless, it will be interesting to witness if he learns from the past, or if he will continue to be stubborn and stick to his game plan. Ouch. And if he continues to be stubborn, it will COST Miami two or three games later this season!! Yikes.
 
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Regarding the efficiency on offense that analytics writers were poking holes into, I love that Lashlee immediately made a point to say we need to be more efficient as an offense and not be reliant on the big play. The standards of expectation & overall maturity level seems so much greater with this 2020 team. Excited to see how they progress going forward.
 
We need to leave the ACC. Game after game, the officials blatantly and purposely ***** us.

Not only does bad officiating cost us points and yards, it puts our player's health at risk. The illegal blocks on Phillips are a great example of that.

Enough is enough with this conference.
 
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J Phillips looks like our best player on D by far just doesn’t have the sack numbers for the stats junkies
 
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Awesome breakdown. Do you use postgame win expectancy? Is it as skewed as some of the metrics you mentioned? Not sure who it comes from, maybe football outsiders has it, but I saw it (on the boards or on twitter?) last year to explain that we were "better than" our record, but had some bad luck etc.
 
Awesome breakdown. Do you use postgame win expectancy? Is it as skewed as some of the metrics you mentioned? Not sure who it comes from, maybe football outsiders has it, but I saw it (on the boards or on twitter?) last year to explain that we were "better than" our record, but had some bad luck etc.
Yes, but keep in mind post-game is going to be descriptive, while the metrics mentioned by Football Outsiders and others are meant to be predictive (meaning they're looking at not just what happened, but how it happened and trying to leverage the more sustainable portions to make predictions about what will happen in the future, or how strong a team is when you strip out luck or variance).

I just wanted to point out how the metrics can be flawed when trying to determine what is fluky for only one side. Miami wins this game more than 50% of the time if you regress the two 75-yard plays down to 10-yard plays and just give them their expected points on the drive for a drive starting at x yard-line and that doesn't do anything to Louisville's plays at all or account for Miami playing several downs as garbage downs after those big plays occurred and got the lead.
 
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