We just watched the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, and there were no Canes dapping up Roger Goodell. What trends can we learn from as the coaches evaluate the next crop of potential first rounders? I joined Peter on the CanesInSight Daily Podcast to discuss what we learned. A summary of the podcast is below:
D$: It’s important to monitor trends when developing strategy, especially in this world where things are changing fast. You want to adjust to new things. The biggest change is the transfer portal era. How do you adjust to the transfer portal era in your recruiting strategy roster development strategy?
On the impact of the transfer portal
D$: I've been pounding the table. Spend your money on portal quarterbacks. Do not get into these bidding wars for high school quarterbacks because it’s increasingly rare to sign a Top 10 quarterback who stays with you from beginning to the end. You can get Top 10 quarterbacks, but get them from the transfer portal where you know what you're getting.
Six quarterbacks in the first round. Four of those guys were transfers. Caleb Williams was the first pick. Jayden Daniels the second pick. Michael Penix was the eighth pick. Bo Nix went shortly thereafter at 12. All transfer quarterbacks. Some were very highly rated out of high school, but they found success as transfers. The other two were Drake Maye (#9 QB in ‘21) and JJ McCarthy (#5 QB in ‘21). I expect the 2025 draft class to be even more Portal-heavy. Pete, what's your take on this?
Peter: Not just the quarterback position, but there were five other guys who were transfers as well. Three of them were defensive linemen. Chop Robinson from Penn State, originally at Maryland, Laiatu Latu (UCLA to Washington). Jared Verse joined FSU from Albany. Ricky Pearsall from Arizona State to Florida and Tyler Guyton from TCU to Oklahoma.
There's been this debate: how do you build the roster, high school guys or transfer guys? You need to have a mix.
No running backs and linebackers in the First Round
D$: This is where I think college football and pro football diverge. If you look at the first round yesterday, no running backs, no off-ball linebackers. It’s a quarterback-driven league. The college game is different because it’s much more important to have a physical running game at that level. All the championship teams have power running games. Michigan this year. Alabama every year. Georgia every year. That's part of their identity. Even if their backs don't get drafted that high, they're still physical at the college level.
Of course, those teams also have big-time linebackers. Junior Colson for Michigan. Georgia and Alabama always have those guys. So that's a trend you see in the pros that I would not necessarily translate to college. You still need to invest in elite running backs and linebackers.
The recruiting rankings keep getting better
Peter: As we pull up the recruiting rankings, it’s mostly four stars and five stars (21 of the 32 picks, or 66%). There's just so much more information available now. Not everyone is going to be that blue-chip recruit, but you're putting yourself in a way better position as a program by recruiting those four and five-star guys.
Blue-chip pass-catchers dominate
D$: I agree. You've seen the blue-chip hit rate get higher every single year. One position where that's very pronounced is receiver. Marvin Harrison, Jr. Malik Nabers. Rome Odunze. Brock Bowers, who's really an offensive weapon. Xavier Worthy. Brian Thomas. Xavier Legette. Those guys were all blue chip players out of high school. Different bodies, different stories, but they're all blue chip players.
The only non-blue chip pass catcher was Ricky Pearsall, who went to Arizona State and then transferred to Florida. And he was already a good player when Florida got him out of the portal. It’s not like he was like a secret.
Peter: Look at what Miami did in the recruiting class this year. Ny Carr, JoJo Trader, Chance Robinson. You need to continue to recruit at an elite level at that position. We have not seen that necessarily at Miami in recent years.
No strong geographic trends
D$: It seemed pretty spread out. South Florida is down. We've seen as many as four first rounders from South Florida in the past. Only one this year with Dallas Turner (Fort Lauderdale). Four players overall from the state of Florida. Michael Penix is from Tampa (Tampa Tech). Terrion Arnold from Tallahassee (John Paul Catholic). Quinyon Mitchell from Gainesville (Williston). And then Turner from St. Thomas Aquinas.
None of these guys went to the Big Three in the state. You had guys from South Florida, Tallahassee and Gainesville, and the Big Three did not land any of them. That's why we've been down.
So Florida had four players. Texas had two (Byron Murphy and Tyler Guyton). Georgia had two players (Amarius Mims and Nate Wiggins). California had four (Jayden Daniels, Brock Bowers, Laiatu Latu, Xavier Worthy). Louisiana had two (Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas). The DMV area had three (Caleb Williams, Olu Fashanu, Chop Robinson). And three Polynesians (Taliese Fuaga, Laiatu Latu, Troy Fautanu). We need to keep building the Polynesian Pipeline to Miami.
