Recruiting is an inexact science. Fans don’t have the answers, but we can try to identify trends both nationally and at Miami. Below is one attempt to collect these trends by position and see how they apply to the Canes. The defensive list is here.
QB
THE TRENDS: The last three Heisman winners played multiple sports in high school. So did the best QBs in the league. Recruiting services overlooked these prospects in favor of specialized passers with private coaches. But multisport kids compete year-round instead of just training. This leads to mental and physical development. Butch Davis fell in love with Ken Dorsey watching him on the basketball court.
Multisport athletes have untapped upside. Urban Meyer said Dwayne Haskins came in way ahead of Joe Burrow, but Burrow (Ohio’s Mr. Basketball) improved at a more rapid pace. Of all the sports, baseball players tend to make the best QBs. Mahomes, Wilson, Brady and Murray are just a few examples. At the plate, they learn to deal with failure and move on to the next at-bat. On the mound, they make 100 decisions every game. Both experiences translate well to QB.
Texas is hands-down the best state for quarterbacks. D’Eriq King is the latest example. We always need to be aware of the Texas crop. What people may not realize is that Florida actually produced the second-most NFL QBs for the past decade. South Florida alone produced seven pros. South Florida QBs have the unique advantage of throwing to D1 WRs and competing against D1 DBs. And like multisport kids, they have untapped upside once they receive college coaching.
The local prospects with NFL size and arm strength—Lamar Jackson, Teddy Bridgewater, Jacoby Brissett, Geno Smith—should be no-brainer offers. And there is a long list of G5 types who put up huge numbers in college, including Winky Flowers, Brandon Doughty, Mike White, Rakeem Cato and Buckshot Calvert. Those prospects are perfect to take as a second QB in a class, as they won’t scare off the big names and can produce in a spread offense.
HOW DOES MIAMI STACK UP: Tyler Van Dyke checks every box as a multisport QB. He played basketball, baseball and football. He was the best pitcher in his region and an excellent hitter. For 2021, the two names we know (Jay Allen and Jake Garcia) represent opposite sides of the coin. Allen is the raw three-sport athlete from Florida, Garcia is the polished California recruiting darling. South Florida has been in a QB slump for a few years, with only five schools starting local QBs (Michigan, FSU, Texas Tech, Tulane, Central Michigan). However, the next three classes appear loaded with talented passers.
RB
THE TRENDS: This gameplan is simple: sign the best backs in South Florida. There are ten local backs in the NFL right now, including five starters. Dalvin Cook is the best running back in the NFL and Khalil Herbert of Virginia Tech (via American Heritage) is one of the premier backs in the country. There is no need to look elsewhere unless it is an Adrian Peterson-type freak.
HOW DOES MIAMI STACK UP: Miami has mostly taken care of business and produced pros. The major exception is 2014. FSU won the Dalvin Cook battle and controlled the state for the next three years. Last year, Miami signed the best backs in Dade and Broward with Don Chaney and Jaylan Knighton. Both are already major contributors. Thad Franklin is the prize this year and he’s committed to the Canes.
WR
THE TRENDS: Wide receiver is quickly becoming the second-most important position in college football. Alabama and LSU revolutionized the SEC with their passing games, and Clemson has a claim as the WRU of this era. Amari Cooper, Calvin Ridley, Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs, DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, Ja’Marr Chase, Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham Jr., Sammy Watkins, Mike Williams and DeAndre Hopkins were all blue-chip, highly recruited wide receivers. It has become an arms race.
In addition to landing blue-chip talent, we should focus on intangibles. Miami has signed a ton of HS All-American WRs since 2001, but too many have lacked the necessary work ethic and love for the game. The few guys that have succeeded (like Allen Hurns) have had the right attitude. Wide receiver is a craftsman’s position, and with current NCAA rules you need to work on your game away from the coaches. Competitive demeanor is also important. DK Metcalf and Chase Claypool are freaks, but they outplayed their second-round grades because they compete. Metcalf made the hustle play of the year and Claypool is a demon on coverage units.
Elite WRs come from everywhere, but South Florida continues to be a pipeline. Elijah Moore (STA) and TuTu Atwell (Northwestern) are two of the best receivers in the country. One trend with successful South Florida sleepers (Antonio Brown, TY Hilton, John Brown, Marquise Brown) is that they have punt return ability, which translates to clean releases, running after the catch, making sharp cuts and tracking the ball.
HOW DOES MIAMI STACK UP: Poorly. Miami’s local signees have disappointed, and its national signees have left. This was not an attractive offense for recruits. Dugans also made some bad evaluations. The ’20 and ’21 classes look improved but someone needs to emerge as a true #1. Success breeds success. Amari Cooper was the next Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley was the next Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy was the next Calvin Ridley, and now Jacorey Brooks is the next Jerry Jeudy. As for sleepers, Malik Rutherford of Champagnat (GT commit) and Vinson Davis of American Heritage fit the mold of quick, tough local ballers.
TE
THE TRENDS: Tight end is the most unique position in recruiting. Two of the most prolific players in the history of the position didn’t even play college football. Many played different positions in high school. It requires a unique skillset and body-type. Six of the eight first-round TEs since 2014 were three-stars or below. All six of those three-stars weighed 220 pounds or less in high school (Hockenson, Fant, Hurst, Engram, Njoku, Ebron). Tight ends often make major physical leaps in college. George Kittle, barely recruited out of Norman, OK, measured at 6’4, 205 out of high school with a 4.86 forty and 27.5-inch vertical. He ended up at 6’4, 247, 4.52 with a 35-inch vertical.
HOW DOES MIAMI STACK UP: Miami should recruit nationally and expect to sign the best guys. Elijah Arroyo is a great example, as are Jordan and Mallory. It’s also a great position to land late-bloomers with a second schollie. Analysts and interns can earn their stripes by identifying every 6’4+ athlete with receiving skills. Because body type and growth potential are so critical at the position, in-person evaluations are key. Many of the future first rounders looked undersized on grainy HUDL tape. Get them down here and size them up. That’s how we got Herndon.
OL
THE TRENDS: Jeff Stoutland already showed us the formula: recruit the big cities and focus on NFL body types. Small towns produce great linemen, but the good ones aren’t always a culture fit at Miami. They’re much more likely to sign with Big 10 and SEC schools. Signing linemen from Iowa doesn’t help if you’re getting Zach Dykstra and Matt Pipho.
In addition to attacking the cities, we need to sign every UM-caliber OL close to home. Believe it or not, Miami has produced NFL OL at a Top 5 rate since 2004. Of those drafted linemen, 77% of them came from South Florida. The local crop will only improve now that there are no weight limits in youth football.
When you look at high school measurables for Day 1- 2 picks, the traits that keep coming up are height and shuttle times. Recent three-star success stories like Chris Lindstrom, Cody Ford, Jonah Jackson, Matt Hennessy, Ezra Cleveland and Erik McCoy averaged a 4.78 shuttle between them. Some of these NFL sleepers are converted basketball players or oversized skill guys like Tytus Howard (QB) and Garrett Bradbury (TE). As with TE, a good recruiting assistant should be on top of these jumbo athletes to get them on campus for further evaluation.
It goes without saying that OL need to be smart and tough. That’s why it’s so important to identify intriguing kids early and evaluate them at camp. James Pogorelc’s freakish measurables (6’7, 270, 4.68 shuttle) and Opening film were public record for months before he got an FBS offer. Butch Barry ignored my emails about him. Once his senior film came out, Pogorelc got a Stanford offer and became a 4* on 247. The time in between was an opportunity to get him on campus.
HOW DOES MIAMI STACK UP: We’re getting better. Jalen Rivers (Jacksonville) and Chris Washington (Nasvhille) are tackle bodies with quality shuttle times. Garin Justice has also done well in South Florida after his predecessor allowed LSU and Clemson to poach the region.
One area where we are lacking is body types. We have three centers on the interior right now and potentially two more in this class (Seymore and Rodriguez). An intriguing option is 6’7, 310 Austin Barber of Jacksonville. The best recruit might be a healthy, conditioned Navaughn Donaldson. His high school size and shuttle (6’6, 345, 4.78) are comparable to 2020 first-round picks Jedrick Wills (6’5, 318, 4.75), Andrew Thomas (6’5, 326, 4.61) and Tristan Wirfs (6’5, 290, 5.03).
QB
THE TRENDS: The last three Heisman winners played multiple sports in high school. So did the best QBs in the league. Recruiting services overlooked these prospects in favor of specialized passers with private coaches. But multisport kids compete year-round instead of just training. This leads to mental and physical development. Butch Davis fell in love with Ken Dorsey watching him on the basketball court.
Multisport athletes have untapped upside. Urban Meyer said Dwayne Haskins came in way ahead of Joe Burrow, but Burrow (Ohio’s Mr. Basketball) improved at a more rapid pace. Of all the sports, baseball players tend to make the best QBs. Mahomes, Wilson, Brady and Murray are just a few examples. At the plate, they learn to deal with failure and move on to the next at-bat. On the mound, they make 100 decisions every game. Both experiences translate well to QB.
Texas is hands-down the best state for quarterbacks. D’Eriq King is the latest example. We always need to be aware of the Texas crop. What people may not realize is that Florida actually produced the second-most NFL QBs for the past decade. South Florida alone produced seven pros. South Florida QBs have the unique advantage of throwing to D1 WRs and competing against D1 DBs. And like multisport kids, they have untapped upside once they receive college coaching.
The local prospects with NFL size and arm strength—Lamar Jackson, Teddy Bridgewater, Jacoby Brissett, Geno Smith—should be no-brainer offers. And there is a long list of G5 types who put up huge numbers in college, including Winky Flowers, Brandon Doughty, Mike White, Rakeem Cato and Buckshot Calvert. Those prospects are perfect to take as a second QB in a class, as they won’t scare off the big names and can produce in a spread offense.
HOW DOES MIAMI STACK UP: Tyler Van Dyke checks every box as a multisport QB. He played basketball, baseball and football. He was the best pitcher in his region and an excellent hitter. For 2021, the two names we know (Jay Allen and Jake Garcia) represent opposite sides of the coin. Allen is the raw three-sport athlete from Florida, Garcia is the polished California recruiting darling. South Florida has been in a QB slump for a few years, with only five schools starting local QBs (Michigan, FSU, Texas Tech, Tulane, Central Michigan). However, the next three classes appear loaded with talented passers.
RB
THE TRENDS: This gameplan is simple: sign the best backs in South Florida. There are ten local backs in the NFL right now, including five starters. Dalvin Cook is the best running back in the NFL and Khalil Herbert of Virginia Tech (via American Heritage) is one of the premier backs in the country. There is no need to look elsewhere unless it is an Adrian Peterson-type freak.
HOW DOES MIAMI STACK UP: Miami has mostly taken care of business and produced pros. The major exception is 2014. FSU won the Dalvin Cook battle and controlled the state for the next three years. Last year, Miami signed the best backs in Dade and Broward with Don Chaney and Jaylan Knighton. Both are already major contributors. Thad Franklin is the prize this year and he’s committed to the Canes.
WR
THE TRENDS: Wide receiver is quickly becoming the second-most important position in college football. Alabama and LSU revolutionized the SEC with their passing games, and Clemson has a claim as the WRU of this era. Amari Cooper, Calvin Ridley, Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs, DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, Ja’Marr Chase, Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham Jr., Sammy Watkins, Mike Williams and DeAndre Hopkins were all blue-chip, highly recruited wide receivers. It has become an arms race.
In addition to landing blue-chip talent, we should focus on intangibles. Miami has signed a ton of HS All-American WRs since 2001, but too many have lacked the necessary work ethic and love for the game. The few guys that have succeeded (like Allen Hurns) have had the right attitude. Wide receiver is a craftsman’s position, and with current NCAA rules you need to work on your game away from the coaches. Competitive demeanor is also important. DK Metcalf and Chase Claypool are freaks, but they outplayed their second-round grades because they compete. Metcalf made the hustle play of the year and Claypool is a demon on coverage units.
Elite WRs come from everywhere, but South Florida continues to be a pipeline. Elijah Moore (STA) and TuTu Atwell (Northwestern) are two of the best receivers in the country. One trend with successful South Florida sleepers (Antonio Brown, TY Hilton, John Brown, Marquise Brown) is that they have punt return ability, which translates to clean releases, running after the catch, making sharp cuts and tracking the ball.
HOW DOES MIAMI STACK UP: Poorly. Miami’s local signees have disappointed, and its national signees have left. This was not an attractive offense for recruits. Dugans also made some bad evaluations. The ’20 and ’21 classes look improved but someone needs to emerge as a true #1. Success breeds success. Amari Cooper was the next Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley was the next Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy was the next Calvin Ridley, and now Jacorey Brooks is the next Jerry Jeudy. As for sleepers, Malik Rutherford of Champagnat (GT commit) and Vinson Davis of American Heritage fit the mold of quick, tough local ballers.
TE
THE TRENDS: Tight end is the most unique position in recruiting. Two of the most prolific players in the history of the position didn’t even play college football. Many played different positions in high school. It requires a unique skillset and body-type. Six of the eight first-round TEs since 2014 were three-stars or below. All six of those three-stars weighed 220 pounds or less in high school (Hockenson, Fant, Hurst, Engram, Njoku, Ebron). Tight ends often make major physical leaps in college. George Kittle, barely recruited out of Norman, OK, measured at 6’4, 205 out of high school with a 4.86 forty and 27.5-inch vertical. He ended up at 6’4, 247, 4.52 with a 35-inch vertical.
HOW DOES MIAMI STACK UP: Miami should recruit nationally and expect to sign the best guys. Elijah Arroyo is a great example, as are Jordan and Mallory. It’s also a great position to land late-bloomers with a second schollie. Analysts and interns can earn their stripes by identifying every 6’4+ athlete with receiving skills. Because body type and growth potential are so critical at the position, in-person evaluations are key. Many of the future first rounders looked undersized on grainy HUDL tape. Get them down here and size them up. That’s how we got Herndon.
OL
THE TRENDS: Jeff Stoutland already showed us the formula: recruit the big cities and focus on NFL body types. Small towns produce great linemen, but the good ones aren’t always a culture fit at Miami. They’re much more likely to sign with Big 10 and SEC schools. Signing linemen from Iowa doesn’t help if you’re getting Zach Dykstra and Matt Pipho.
In addition to attacking the cities, we need to sign every UM-caliber OL close to home. Believe it or not, Miami has produced NFL OL at a Top 5 rate since 2004. Of those drafted linemen, 77% of them came from South Florida. The local crop will only improve now that there are no weight limits in youth football.
When you look at high school measurables for Day 1- 2 picks, the traits that keep coming up are height and shuttle times. Recent three-star success stories like Chris Lindstrom, Cody Ford, Jonah Jackson, Matt Hennessy, Ezra Cleveland and Erik McCoy averaged a 4.78 shuttle between them. Some of these NFL sleepers are converted basketball players or oversized skill guys like Tytus Howard (QB) and Garrett Bradbury (TE). As with TE, a good recruiting assistant should be on top of these jumbo athletes to get them on campus for further evaluation.
It goes without saying that OL need to be smart and tough. That’s why it’s so important to identify intriguing kids early and evaluate them at camp. James Pogorelc’s freakish measurables (6’7, 270, 4.68 shuttle) and Opening film were public record for months before he got an FBS offer. Butch Barry ignored my emails about him. Once his senior film came out, Pogorelc got a Stanford offer and became a 4* on 247. The time in between was an opportunity to get him on campus.
HOW DOES MIAMI STACK UP: We’re getting better. Jalen Rivers (Jacksonville) and Chris Washington (Nasvhille) are tackle bodies with quality shuttle times. Garin Justice has also done well in South Florida after his predecessor allowed LSU and Clemson to poach the region.
One area where we are lacking is body types. We have three centers on the interior right now and potentially two more in this class (Seymore and Rodriguez). An intriguing option is 6’7, 310 Austin Barber of Jacksonville. The best recruit might be a healthy, conditioned Navaughn Donaldson. His high school size and shuttle (6’6, 345, 4.78) are comparable to 2020 first-round picks Jedrick Wills (6’5, 318, 4.75), Andrew Thomas (6’5, 326, 4.61) and Tristan Wirfs (6’5, 290, 5.03).
