Some thoughts on the Duke game after rewatch

DMoney
DMoney
6 min read

Comments (192)

First half Murphy was getting the ball out fast. Looked like we played a lot more zone in the second half? By doing so it looked like it slowed down Murphy’s reads which in turn gave our DL more time to pressure. Last year I think we got a whole lot more pressure with blitz packages that got home vs this year where we’re sending people but we’re a step late. Need Damari back in the worst way.
 
Every single person in the stadium knew that pass was going at Kiko for 40 yards. EVERY SINGLE PERSON.

Stevie Wonder heard gasps and was able to immediately know Godry had Kiko exposed by Manny Diaz. Said: "I knew it #1, #7 or #25, but the exasperation made it clear it was again #1 pre-snap"
I hear what you are saying but they went 5 wide on that particular play and schemed up exactly what they wanted. Sometimes you just have to tip your cap to the other side and move on. I don’t know anything about the inner workings of Xs and Os of football but even I could see that TD coming before the ball was even snapped
 
Bottom-feeder is too strong.

Just looking at the ACC rankings, we're 7th in scoring defense (out of 17 teams) and 1st in total defense (which I think is deceptive, but worth noting).

I'd say average to below-average depending on how we finish. Yesterday was a step backwards against a bad offense.
7th in scoring doesn’t look awful in a vacuum, but we’ve only played 1 offense (Louisville) with a pulse. The rest have all been lower tier offenses and we’re still struggling (Va Tech, 11th in YPG, 8th in scoring), Cal (12th in YPG, 13th in scoring), Duke (15th in YPG, 12th in scoring), and FSU (17th in YPG, 17th in scoring). Every ACC team that we’ve played, except for FSU scored more against us than they’re averaging per game in points.
 
Why does Guidry’s first half gameplan consistently blow??? He’s obviously smart by way of his second half adjustments.

I just don’t get how his defense very consistently gets exposed and outschemed to start a game
I've played football into college and I played on team where this what the case. Long story short, our team wasn't smart enough to take on a new complex game plan designed to stop the other team. It ended up making us play slow as everyone was thinking about film study or the new wrinkles. At half, we would get back to some of these base blitzes and things installed in fall camp and we would route.

I have no clue if this is the case, but I think our backend is green. They struggle getting lined up. They're thinking to much. Some of our better plays in the secondary yesterday was when guys were bailing in zone.

I think guidry can improve but he's got his hands tied behind his back. His d line isn't doing him any favors. He needs to simulate pressure and/or stunt to get home. Opening big lanes. If they don't get home, we have a secondary who can't process the game getting torched. Man is the easiest thing to teach, yet these guys can't figure out how to get lined up.
 
This Canes season has been so exciting that our three-touchdown humiliation of FSU last week seemed boring. The drama was back this weekend, and the Canes came out on top. My thoughts, from an in-person view and rewatch, our below:

- This is one of the best offenses of the past decade. Below is a list of the top offense every season, with some key players and coaches in parenthesis:

2024 Miami- 46.3 PPG
2023 LSU- 43.3 PPG (Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas, Jr.)
2022 Tennessee- 44.5 PPG (Josh Heupel, Hendon Hooker, Jaylin Hyatt)
2021 Ohio State- 45.7 PPG (CJ Stroud, Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Chris Olave)
2020 Alabama- 48.5 PPG (Mac Jones, Najee Harris, Devonta Smith)
2019 LSU- 47.2 PPG (Joe Burrow, Justin Jefferson, Jamarr Chase)
2018 Oklahoma- 48.4 PPG (Kyler Murray, Lincoln Riley, Hollywood Brown)
2017 UCF- 46.2 PPG (McKenzie Milton, Scott Frost, TreQuan Smith)
2016 Oklahoma- 43.9 PPG (Baker Mayfield, Joe Mixon, DeDe Westbrook)
2015 Baylor- 46.6 PPG (Art Briles, Russell/Stidham, Corey Coleman)
2014 Baylor- 46.4 PPG (Art Briles, Bryce Petty, Corey Coleman)

Miami is up there with the loaded, trend-setting offenses we all remember. The key -- along with having the best player in the country taking snaps -- is the balance. We are strong and deep at every skill position, we have a mammoth OL, and we can play with both finesse and power. All of that was on display in the second half against Duke.

- Nine games in, the defense is what it is. It's an average to below-average P4 group. In weeks prior, it looked like we were doing too much in the secondary and struggling to communicate. This week, it seemed we kept it very simple and gave Duke a very clear picture of what our safeties were doing. Duke, like California, is a middling offense with limited explosiveness. We made them look comfortable for most of the game.

- An obvious issue is the lack of playoff-caliber talent in the secondary. This is the direct result of poor high school recruiting during the Addae Era. When you get a guy like OJ Frederique or Zaquan Patterson, they look different physically. It is easy to see in the way Frederique moves or the way Patterson strikes. It's hard to get those physical tools in the Portal at defensive back unless you are taking a big character risk. We'll work the Portal hard this offseason, but we really need to solve this problem in high school recruiting.

- Guidry looks to me like he's having trouble adjusting to the lack of talent in the secondary. At Marshall, he had really good corners (relative to the league) and put a lot of responsibility on them. He has to play differently here. The lack of a nickel (which was the only major Portal miss) hurts you at two spots, since Daryl Porter is much more comfortable outside.

- Manny Diaz and Duke's coaching staff did a good job having his team ready to play. They surprised us with tempo down 14-0, they got to favorable matchups (Mauigoa one-on-one with a RB with no safety help), and they played with confidence. Duke is a good spot for him- less pressure, self-starting players, more room to experiment. If he can find a niche recruiting undersized, fast smart guys, I could see him sticking there a while.

- We have the best tight end room in the nation. Elijah Arroyo will be a high pick, Riley Williams is a specimen (watch his inline block on the Fletcher TD and his catch on the next drive), Elija Lofton does everything, and Cam McCormick is proving doubters wrong as a valuable role player.

- Not much more needs to be said about Xavier Restrepo. He's an all-time great. One thing I did want to highlight is his short-area burst- he's much more like a running back than your average slot receiver. His cut upfield on the third TD was an explosive move.

- Restrepo deserves the attention, but Jacolby George played one of his better games. He's the best example of Mario's player development. I don't think he makes it under the prior culture.

- I feel terrible for Jadais Richard. Hoping for good news and, if not, a clean rehab process.

- It's hard to know the full story without being in the building, but it sure seems like Kiko Mauigoa is playing downhill less this year. On a per game basis, his TFLs are down almost 40% and his sacks are down 61%. He's at his best creating havoc.

- True freshman LB Bobby Pruitt got into the game early on third down. I love the move- we need to get faster there and better in coverage. Pruitt has a nose for the ball and is one of the best athletes on defense.

- RT Francis Mauigoa was dominant in the run game. There just aren't ACC teams that can handle his size, movement and power. He and Markel Bell will be one of the best tackle duos in the nation next year.

- The crowd wasn't what it needs to be, but it was better than it looked on television. Hope Wake Forest is not another noon game.

- Rueben Bain causes a lot of problems that don't show up in the box score. He caused the Meesh Powell INT with pressure, and he forced a fumble in the fourth by clubbing the OL into Maalik Murphy.

- Booker Pickett looked like he was at a different speed on the fourth quarter sack. Miami feels it hit a home run with the 2024 defensive line class.

- We're 9-0. Florida and FSU are a combined 5-12. Life is good.

We have three games to get this right before ACC Championship and possible playoff run. We need to go to zone and play some of the younger players. We don’t have the players to play man. If we all can see it and ACC coach see it what is going on with Guidry. This offense is too good to be let down by an awful defense
 
Advertisement
I hear what you are saying but they went 5 wide on that particular play and schemed up exactly what they wanted. Sometimes you just have to tip your cap to the other side and move on. I don’t know anything about the inner workings of Xs and Os of football but even I could see that TD coming before the ball was even snapped
Agreed it was great play calling by Duke, but as we are all saying, you need to solve for some of that complete mismatch by week 10 - especially if the player is also not providing his other utility which is tackling.
 
We’re getting a lot of pressure but not converting sacks. I think it’s a combination of things. Quarterbacks are comfortable challenging our secondary, Bain missing time, Baron being a little tight at the hips as a finisher, and Mauigoa not repeating his pass rush production from last year.
I wouldn't define the last couple games as a lot of pressure. It's sporadic. Stonewalled at times as well.
 
7th in scoring doesn’t look awful in a vacuum, but we’ve only played 1 offense (Louisville) with a pulse. The rest have all been lower tier offenses and we’re still struggling (Va Tech, 11th in YPG, 8th in scoring), Cal (12th in YPG, 13th in scoring), Duke (15th in YPG, 12th in scoring), and FSU (17th in YPG, 17th in scoring). Every ACC team that we’ve played, except for FSU scored more against us than they’re averaging per game in points.
ESPN's SP Plus (which adjusts all rankings to competition level) had us 31st nationally last week in defense. I expect us to drop a bit since Duke's offense stinks, but it will be in that general area.

Again, the defense is a major problem. I lose sleep over it. But saying it's a bottom-feeder defense is not in tune with the stats. There are a lot of bad defenses out there. We're towards the middle or a little below.
 
Advertisement
I just know if I see Kiko playin I do not care what the situation is, I am throwin his way. As a poster mentioned before, I don’t know what is going on, maybe mental because if it weren’t for bad throws we could be looking at different outcomes. He seems indecisive in coverage.

Semper Canes!!!
 
I've played football into college and I played on team where this what the case. Long story short, our team wasn't smart enough to take on a new complex game plan designed to stop the other team. It ended up making us play slow as everyone was thinking about film study or the new wrinkles. At half, we would get back to some of these base blitzes and things installed in fall camp and we would route.

I have no clue if this is the case, but I think our backend is green. They struggle getting lined up. They're thinking to much. Some of our better plays in the secondary yesterday was when guys were bailing in zone.

I think guidry can improve but he's got his hands tied behind his back. His d line isn't doing him any favors. He needs to simulate pressure and/or stunt to get home. Opening big lanes. If they don't get home, we have a secondary who can't process the game getting torched. Man is the easiest thing to teach, yet these guys can't figure out how to get lined up.
If you’re too dumb to run man or cover 3 I’m not sure what ya do lol. I’ve never seen anything like this in all my years. On the Duke fourth down they had two guys wide open and a third guy about to clear the lb’s face lol. Maybe that run a shell defense 🤷‍♂️ .
 
@DMoney - Nine games in, the defense is what it is. It's an average to below-average P4 group. In weeks prior, it looked like we were doing too much in the secondary and struggling to communicate. This week, it seemed we kept it very simple and gave Duke a very clear picture of what our safeties were doing. Duke, like California, is a middling offense with limited explosiveness. We made them look comfortable for most of the game.

The sideline-to-sideline stuff (also, throw in VaTech on this) has been killing us. This is where the lack of athleticism in the back seven is showing itself. Even if you lack explosiveness, you can scheme open a player on horizontal stuff. Our players - especially when in man - just don't have the closing speed to close the gap in the route and we're not good enough - consistently - tackling to simply keep it a minimum gain. We also have guys that will bite and get out of position. Fine and all if you are athletic enough to make up for it, but we seemingly have a bunch of 4.6 or slower type DBs out there (linebackers are shockingly slow...Kiko on wheels is just way behind every time).

I still think this stuff is fixable, but its on Guidry. Too simple and too complex...gotta find something right in the middle, and use a little more zone. How many times did we get ***t on some bunched trips and a Duke player is wide open underneath? I was a little whacked during the game, but it seems every time we were 3 on 3 in those scenarios and easy pickings. Like playing CFB25, hot route to a zig and its wide open every time.
 
Advertisement
Bottom-feeder is too strong.

Just looking at the ACC rankings, we're 7th in scoring defense (out of 17 teams) and 1st in total defense (which I think is deceptive, but worth noting).

I'd say average to below-average depending on how we finish. Yesterday was a step backwards against a bad offense.
Fair point but our schedule has inflated those numbers. Duke, Cal, FSU, VT haven’t been good on offense this entire season but somehow manage to have their best performances against us. Time to play some young guys (they are grading better than our portal guys) and pray Damari continues to trend to a return!
 
My guess is Meesh Powell plays more nickel and Patterson plays more safety.
I'd be concerned with ZP and Jaden Harris as our starting safeties. We need to get somebody else at nickel and put ZP in with Meesh at safety. Get Jaden off the field and get somebody at nickel that is smart with help over the top (even if they're not that athletic).

Leave DP and OJ in man coverage on the outside with occasional safety help. But safeties need to be focused on helping the LBs (Kiko) and nickel in intermediate (7-15 yards) coverage.

We're not getting beat over the top much. It's the short plays that turn into long plays that are killing us.
 
Advertisement
@DMoney - I am curious what your analysis is on the DLine. Before the season started, I anticipated us getting much more pressure on the QB. Is the coverage so bad that these DL don't have time to get to the QB or is it something else I am missing. Thanks.
Not D but yesterday duke was getting ball out quiiiiick, on most throws his first read was open and ball was out. I would say predetermined also, that's why he threw a couple picks because he was surprised by coverage.. he wasnt reading, just drop back and let go based on presnap..

When game got out of hand and he had to actual drop back it was different story
 
I think Guidry needs to explore the quarters zone defense with blitzing more than 4 (min 5, sometimes 6) defense that the NFL has ramped up this season. Mixing that type of defense would force more mistakes.

Also, @DMoney i noticed on the Booker sack, Cole was the opposite DE. Has Lightfoot been left in the dust here?
 
First half Murphy was getting the ball out fast. Looked like we played a lot more zone in the second half? By doing so it looked like it slowed down Murphy’s reads which in turn gave our DL more time to pressure. Last year I think we got a whole lot more pressure with blitz packages that got home vs this year where we’re sending people but we’re a step late. Need Damari back in the worst way.

Is Damari even coming back this season???
 
Back
Top