We spend so much time on recruiting, but we rarely take time to look back. This series examines every class for the past five coaches- Manny, Richt, Golden, Shannon, and Coker. As Mario’s first class enters Year 4, what are the trends he needs to avoid if he wants to break the cycle?
Of course, bad coaching and development played a massive role in our downfall. But for this exercise, I wanted to focus on pure talent acquisition. That’s why I use NFL numbers. The NFL has the most standardized and competitive talent-evaluation process in football. It’s also really hard to get there- only 2% of CFB players and only 22% of four-stars make the league. And far fewer are able to stick around. As expected, our NFL decline mirrored our decline on the field.
Next up is the Class of 2009. Let’s start with the numbers:.
Four-year winning percentage: 58% (+3 over the prior year)
Total enrollees- 17
NFL players- 7
NFL games- 363
Day 1 Picks-0
Day 2 picks- 1
Pro Bowls- 2
I’ve listed the players in order of recruiting ranking, with NFL players in BOLD:
FOUR STARS
CB Brandon McGee (Broward, FL)
DE Dyron Dye (Sanford, FL)
DE Olivier Vernon (Miami-Dade, FL)
DT Curtis Porter (Charlotte, NC)
TE Billy Sanders (Phoenix, AZ)
TE Cory White (Jacksonville, FL)
ATH AJ Highsmith (Houston, TX)
OL Jared Wheeler (Broward, FL)
DE Shayon Green (Tifton, GA)
TE Stephen Plein (Fort Myers, FL)
WHAT HAPPENED: The 2009 Class felt like a massive letdown. We dropped to #16 in the nation after finishing #1 the year before. There were no five stars and no Top 50 prospects. Surprisingly, this class turned out better than the ‘08 class- more impact talent, less filler. But it could have been so much more.
The issues started at quarterback. By late 2008, Jacory Harris had won the Miami job and looked like the future. But even before then, Randy Shannon never put the full-court press on Miramar’s Geno Smith. That miss looks worse every year. Geno signed with West Virginia, threw for 98 TDs, and is still an NFL starting quarterback 16 years later.
There were more targets that should have been Canes. Geno’s receiver at Miramar and West Virginia, Stedman Bailey, ended up better than any of the seven receivers we signed the year before. We did not sign a receiver in this class.
Shannon also struggled to evaluate corners. He felt that CB Jayron Hosley from Delray Beach was too small for the Canes. Hosley ended up becoming a first-team All-American and third round pick for Virginia Tech. All of these corner issues would come to a head in 2011, when Golden lacked ACC-caliber bodies in the room.
And even when Shannon hit the evaluation, he failed to close the deal. Miami was early to offer a pair of three-stars who would go to the NFL: CB Kayvon Webster (Miami Pace) and LB Sam Barrington (Jacksonville). Despite the timely offers, we lost the recruiting battles to USF. Both players were on the field in 2010 when the Bulls ended Shannon’s head coaching career.
Another striking feature of this class- no linebackers. Like Manny Diaz years later, Shannon missed often at his own position. This year’s miss was Jon Bostic, a Palm Beach native who would sign with the Gators and play nine years in the pros.
BEST PLAYER: When he signed his extension with the Giants, Oliver Vernon became the highest-paid defensive end in NFL history. He had unique power off the edge and a great motor. One of the issues with this era is that a player like Vernon (63 career NFL sacks) only had nine sacks at Miami.
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: This class had a good hit rate with its blue-chippers (7 out of 9 making the pros), but my pick would be Jamal Reid. A do-it-all athlete from a small town on the Suwannee River, Reid had some of the most fun tape in the class as a ballhawk and playmaker. Ultimately, he lacked the strength and speed to compete against higher-level competition.
BEST EVALUATION: None of the three stars hit, so I’ll just use this to highlight Lamar Miller. All of the attention in this class was on RB Bryce Brown, a five-star from Wichita and the brother of Miami LB Arthur Brown. Brown signed with Tennessee after a circus recruitment. Miller ended up being the far better player, rushing for over 5,800 yards in the pros. He would’ve had more, but a knee injury coming off a Pro Bowl season ended his career at 28.
LESSON LEARNED: Miami should never undersign at WR and DB. It’s easy to see why we had depth issues when you review these classes. And there's a similar lesson to 2008- bet on traits. Geno Smith was always compared to Jacory Harris, but he was a stronger and more physical version. That allowed his career to get to a higher level.
The big takeaway with this class is that Shannon’s player development and deployment was a bigger issue than his recruiting. We had three longtime pros in this class, and none really made a huge impact other than one season of Lamar Miller. If Ray-Ray Armstrong bought into linebacker and Shannon recruited enough safeties to force the move, he could’ve been a Day 1 or 2 pick. As it is, he played 86 games in the pros while learning the position on the fly.
CONCLUSION: This class was better than it looked on paper. But it could have been championship caliber if you simply added Geno, Bailey, Hosley, Barrington and Webster. Those types of losses hurt Shannon just as much as the high-profile battles.
Of course, bad coaching and development played a massive role in our downfall. But for this exercise, I wanted to focus on pure talent acquisition. That’s why I use NFL numbers. The NFL has the most standardized and competitive talent-evaluation process in football. It’s also really hard to get there- only 2% of CFB players and only 22% of four-stars make the league. And far fewer are able to stick around. As expected, our NFL decline mirrored our decline on the field.
Next up is the Class of 2009. Let’s start with the numbers:.
Four-year winning percentage: 58% (+3 over the prior year)
Total enrollees- 17
NFL players- 7
NFL games- 363
Day 1 Picks-0
Day 2 picks- 1
Pro Bowls- 2
I’ve listed the players in order of recruiting ranking, with NFL players in BOLD:
FOUR STARS
CB Brandon McGee (Broward, FL)
- 15 NFL games
- 5th Round
- 86 NFL games
- 106 NFL games
- 4th Round
- One Pro Bowl
DE Dyron Dye (Sanford, FL)
DE Olivier Vernon (Miami-Dade, FL)
- 127 NFL games
- 3rd Round
- One Pro Bowl
- 1 NFL game
- Sixth Round
- 23 NFL games
- 6th Round
- 5 NFL games
DT Curtis Porter (Charlotte, NC)
TE Billy Sanders (Phoenix, AZ)
TE Cory White (Jacksonville, FL)
ATH AJ Highsmith (Houston, TX)
OL Jared Wheeler (Broward, FL)
DE Shayon Green (Tifton, GA)
TE Stephen Plein (Fort Myers, FL)
WHAT HAPPENED: The 2009 Class felt like a massive letdown. We dropped to #16 in the nation after finishing #1 the year before. There were no five stars and no Top 50 prospects. Surprisingly, this class turned out better than the ‘08 class- more impact talent, less filler. But it could have been so much more.
The issues started at quarterback. By late 2008, Jacory Harris had won the Miami job and looked like the future. But even before then, Randy Shannon never put the full-court press on Miramar’s Geno Smith. That miss looks worse every year. Geno signed with West Virginia, threw for 98 TDs, and is still an NFL starting quarterback 16 years later.
There were more targets that should have been Canes. Geno’s receiver at Miramar and West Virginia, Stedman Bailey, ended up better than any of the seven receivers we signed the year before. We did not sign a receiver in this class.
Shannon also struggled to evaluate corners. He felt that CB Jayron Hosley from Delray Beach was too small for the Canes. Hosley ended up becoming a first-team All-American and third round pick for Virginia Tech. All of these corner issues would come to a head in 2011, when Golden lacked ACC-caliber bodies in the room.
And even when Shannon hit the evaluation, he failed to close the deal. Miami was early to offer a pair of three-stars who would go to the NFL: CB Kayvon Webster (Miami Pace) and LB Sam Barrington (Jacksonville). Despite the timely offers, we lost the recruiting battles to USF. Both players were on the field in 2010 when the Bulls ended Shannon’s head coaching career.
Another striking feature of this class- no linebackers. Like Manny Diaz years later, Shannon missed often at his own position. This year’s miss was Jon Bostic, a Palm Beach native who would sign with the Gators and play nine years in the pros.
BEST PLAYER: When he signed his extension with the Giants, Oliver Vernon became the highest-paid defensive end in NFL history. He had unique power off the edge and a great motor. One of the issues with this era is that a player like Vernon (63 career NFL sacks) only had nine sacks at Miami.
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: This class had a good hit rate with its blue-chippers (7 out of 9 making the pros), but my pick would be Jamal Reid. A do-it-all athlete from a small town on the Suwannee River, Reid had some of the most fun tape in the class as a ballhawk and playmaker. Ultimately, he lacked the strength and speed to compete against higher-level competition.
BEST EVALUATION: None of the three stars hit, so I’ll just use this to highlight Lamar Miller. All of the attention in this class was on RB Bryce Brown, a five-star from Wichita and the brother of Miami LB Arthur Brown. Brown signed with Tennessee after a circus recruitment. Miller ended up being the far better player, rushing for over 5,800 yards in the pros. He would’ve had more, but a knee injury coming off a Pro Bowl season ended his career at 28.
LESSON LEARNED: Miami should never undersign at WR and DB. It’s easy to see why we had depth issues when you review these classes. And there's a similar lesson to 2008- bet on traits. Geno Smith was always compared to Jacory Harris, but he was a stronger and more physical version. That allowed his career to get to a higher level.
The big takeaway with this class is that Shannon’s player development and deployment was a bigger issue than his recruiting. We had three longtime pros in this class, and none really made a huge impact other than one season of Lamar Miller. If Ray-Ray Armstrong bought into linebacker and Shannon recruited enough safeties to force the move, he could’ve been a Day 1 or 2 pick. As it is, he played 86 games in the pros while learning the position on the fly.
CONCLUSION: This class was better than it looked on paper. But it could have been championship caliber if you simply added Geno, Bailey, Hosley, Barrington and Webster. Those types of losses hurt Shannon just as much as the high-profile battles.
