Every draft, I go back and study the first rounders as high school recruits. Peter Ariz and I talked about the results of that study on today’s CanesInSight Daily Podcast. A summary of our discussion can be found here.
We also had a specific conversation about the first rounders who were not blue-chip players. When you study the sleepers, some clear trends emerge that may help us improve our own evaluations. A summary of that discussion is below:
D$: Blue-chippers make up a bigger percentage of the first round every year. But there is plenty to learn from the 11 non-blue chippers that got picked in the first on Thursday.
Position-wise, five offensive linemen were three stars (Olu Fashanu, Taliese Fuaga, Jordan Morgan, Graham Barton, Tyler Guyton). Even as recruiting rankings get better at that spot, there are always going to be late bloomers due to the size requirements of the position. You also have two defensive linemen (Darius Robinson and Jared Verse), one QB (Michael Penix), one wide receiver (Ricky Pearsall) and one corner (Quinyon Mitchell). Let’s go through them one by one:
QB Michael Penix, Washington (Tampa, FL)
D$: There are a lot of Florida quarterbacks in the NFL right now, including the reigning MVP. But if you look at those Florida quarterbacks, most of them were three stars or less because they were underdeveloped. There's not a lot of great quarterback coaching in the state and not a lot of financial investment like in other places. But the QBs are tough, talented and smart. Penix fits that mold.
He was a centerfielder in baseball and lettered in track (22.89 200M). Multisport QBs and underdeveloped Florida QBs- Penix fits two sleeper QB archetypes that we’ve discussed at length on CanesInSight.
WR Ricky Pearsall, Florida (Tempe, AZ)
D$: Extremely productive player. Set the Arizona single-game receiving record (342 yards). He played everywhere. Receiver, returner, Wildcat QB, safety. Ran an 11.01 100M with a 113 SPARQ. Wide receiver is a production position, and he produced while also hitting athletic markers.
Peter: A transfer who improved the stock over the last couple of years. I had a player out of Arizona State a couple of years ago (as an agent) and I was not hearing that Pearsall was this level of prospect at that time. So props to him for continuing to improve his stock.
CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo (Gainesville, FL)
D$: The trends continue. He was a multisport kid that played basketball and ran track (10.86 100M). He played both ways. He made with the ball in his hands. If you slapped a four-star rating or a five-star rating on this film, no one would bat an eye because you see the speed and ability. We've listed three guys: all have good track numbers and do multiple things on the field.
Miami has struggled to sign cornerbacks. We need to be looking in state and anywhere else for guys with the requisite athleticism as a starting point. That means speed and track times. I don’t know the track times for Miami's current defensive back room, which is a bad sign because they either didn’t run or didn’t run fast.
Basketball is another tell here. Devon Witherspoon (Top 10 pick in ‘23) is from Pensacola, Florida. How did he leave the state? He was a late-blooming basketball player with untapped athleticism at CB. Just like Mitchell.
OT Olu Fashanu, Penn State (Washington, DC)
D$: To me, this was just a bad job by the recruiting sites to have this guy as a three-star. He had offers from Alabama, Georgia, Michigan and Ohio State. He played for a big program in D.C. He was the left tackle for Caleb Williams, so everybody saw him. The tools are clear on his tape. The only thing lacking is a little bit of strength. The recruiting services just outsmarted themselves with him. There's no way this guy should have been a three-star.
OT Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State (Tacoma, WA)
D$: A lot of teams missed on this guy. Went back and watched his film. He played more defensive line than offensive line. So you see a guy with size who plays both ways. Tommy Kinsler from our '23 class is a huge guy who played defensive line and offensive line. Great size, great athleticism. Hopefully you see him shaking Goodell's hand in the future.
https://www.hudl.com/video/3/9462452/5c5f8ed8066b63124cbe375c
DE Jared Verse, Florida State (Bloomsburg, PA)
D$: As we all know, Verse went to the University of Albany before transferring to Florida State. Everybody missed on him. Now, I'm not saying this guy should have been a blue-chipper out of high school. He was only 205 pounds. There’s a growth spurt that's hard to project.
But when you watch these HUDL highlights, there's no way this dude should have gone FCS. Somebody messed up. He played basketball. He ran an 11.3 100M. He ran a 22.7 200M. Even at 6’3, 205, that's still flying. Forget the growth spurt. You see him running people over. You see him playing defense. You see him being tough. This, to me, was a major miss by the smaller Power 5 schools and the G5 schools. Once again: multisport, both sides of the ball and verified track measurables.
Peter: You would think at least one of the MAC schools there in the area would have been all over him. But you see it in the clips. He’s making people miss. He's blocking. Some college coaches should be pretty upset they didn't pull the trigger there.
https://www.hudl.com/video/3/7589859/5bfea9ae2352490f348556d3
OT Jordan Morgan, Arizona (Tuscon, AZ)
D$: This is your classic three-star that the local program did a good job evaluating. Sorry if I'm broken record, but go to the track. 50.9 inches in the shot put, 139.4 in the discus, 149.6 in the javelin. Not only does he show that power with the shot, but he's doing multiple events. The size was there. So it’s frame and verified track numbers. Similar story to a lot of these guys.
Peter: I asked someone about him a couple of years ago when he first came on my radar. And the first thing I heard was, “He may be a little on the soft side.” Sometimes you just have to overlook that stuff and hope to coach that into them. The physical tools are going to be the most important thing at the end of the day. You can have someone extremely tough, but if they don't have those physical tools to deal with the speed off the edge or in the interior, it doesn't matter.
https://www.hudl.com/video/3/7811114/5afd0cc438636a0e34ef400f
DE Darius Robinson, Missouri (Detroit, MI)
D$: Robinson played basketball and played tight end. He didn’t start playing football until he was a junior. When someone starts football later in their career and picks it up fast, that's always something to watch. I love defensive linemen who play offense. Artavius Jones, the defensive lineman that signed this year from the Panhandle, fits into that category. He played tight end, offensive line, defensive line, basketball. Justin Scott ran the ball and plays hoops. These are trends you see consistently. Guys that have size and then do all of these things beyond their primary football position.
OT Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma (Austin, TX)
D$: Basketball player who started football late. Similar to Darius Robinson. Guyton played defensive line. Limited film which wasn’t overly impressive. His first snaps in college at TCU were actually at H-Back. He ends up becoming an offensive lineman and transfers to Oklahoma, where they polish him up.
https://www.hudl.com/profile/13513771/Tyler-Guyton
OL Graham Barton, Duke (Nashville, TN)
D$: This was really fun film to watch. Again, when you watch these OL first rounders in high school, they're playing on the defensive line as well. That shows their toughness, their athleticism, their importance to the team. When guys are only playing on offense, they're either not mean enough to play defense or they're not athletic enough to play defense. Unless you're just on such a loaded team that you don’t need to play both ways.
Barton is from the Nashville suburbs. He played lacrosse growing up. A sport that requires a lot of coordination and movement. You know he’s smart based on his offers. The body filled out. You saw his toughness on defense and the lacrosse field.
Duke just produced a first round pick in the NFL Draft. Miami did not. That is a situation that needs to be corrected. I think Mario will correct that through sheer effort and money. But it is important to continue to improve the evaluation piece.
https://www.hudl.com/video/3/7623780/5df2657b5eee020db85ade1e
