Jai Lucas set to become next men’s basketball coach

Da_Lucky_One said:

There are too many comments on him getting the job for this not to be true.

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NC_Canes_11 said:

Chris Beard and Will Wade. If they weren’t offered the job, it’s a failure of epic proportions by this athletic department.

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Calinative said:

Grok Evaluation of Jai Lucas
As Miami searches for a new head coach following Jim Larrañaga’s retirement, Jai Lucas, the 36-year-old Associate Head Coach at Duke, emerges as a compelling candidate. With a strong reputation for recruiting and player development, Lucas offers significant upside, but his lack of head coaching experience introduces uncertainty.

Miami’s basketball program has a history of intermittent success under Larrañaga, including a Sweet 16 run in 2013 and an Elite Eight appearance in 2022. However, inconsistency has been a challenge, as evidenced by their 15-17 record in 2023-24. With NIL funds estimated in the top 10-20 nationally, Miami has a solid financial foundation to attract talent, though it falls short of blue-blood programs like Duke or Kentucky. This positions the Hurricanes to compete for high-level recruits but requires strategic coaching to maximize their resources.

Lucas has built an impressive résumé as an assistant coach at Texas, Kentucky, and Duke:

• Recruiting Excellence: Named the second-best recruiter nationally in 2021-22 at Kentucky, Lucas has secured top-10 classes (e.g., Jarrett Allen at Texas, Cooper Flagg at Duke) and has deep ties to talent-rich regions like Texas and the Southeast.
• Player Development: He excels at developing guards and big men, producing NBA-caliber talent.
• Defensive Acumen: As Duke’s defensive coordinator, he’s contributed to top-30 national rankings in points allowed and field goal percentage defense.

At Miami, Lucas could elevate the program by leveraging his recruiting prowess to land top talent, particularly in the Southeast, and instilling a defensive identity to address recent inconsistencies. His player development skills could maximize Miami’s roster, aligning with the program’s NIL spending power. However, his lack of head coaching experience is a notable risk—he’ll need to quickly adapt to program leadership, in-game strategy, and staff coordination, areas untested in his assistant roles.

Fans should anticipate a gradual build with Lucas, with tangible progress by his second or third year:

• Year 1: Focus on establishing a defensive foundation and roster cohesion. A .500 ACC record and a potential NIT berth are realistic, with an outside shot at the NCAA Tournament if transfers contribute immediately.
• Year 2: With a full recruiting cycle, Lucas could secure a top-20 class, pushing Miami into the top half of the ACC and earning an NCAA Tournament bid (e.g., 7-10 seed).
• Year 3: A top-10 recruiting class could position Miami as a consistent NCAA Tournament team and a dark horse for ACC contention, potentially landing a 3-5 seed and making a postseason splash.

Lucas’s recruiting edge and Miami’s NIL resources suggest the Hurricanes could become a regular NCAA Tournament contender, but instant success is unlikely given his inexperience. Patience will be key as he transitions to head coaching.

To contextualize Lucas’s potential trajectory, consider these parallels:

• Best-Case Scenario: Brad Stevens at Butler
  Stevens, a young assistant with no head coaching experience, took over Butler in 2007 and led them to back-to-back national championship games (2010, 2011). Like Lucas, he excelled in recruiting and player development, building a defensive-minded program that punched above its weight. If Lucas adapts quickly, he could mirror Stevens, turning Miami into a top-25 program with deep tournament runs.
• Worst-Case Scenario: Chris Mullin at St. John’s
  Mullin, a former NBA star with no coaching experience, struggled at St. John’s (2015-2019), finishing with a 59-73 record. Despite strong recruiting ties, he faltered in program management and strategy. If Lucas fails to adjust to head coaching demands, Miami could face a similar stagnant period.

Conclusion
Jai Lucas is a high-upside hire for Miami. Jai Lucas brings elite recruiting, player development, and defensive skills to Miami, offering the potential to elevate the Hurricanes into a consistent NCAA Tournament team by Year 2 or 3. With Miami’s top-10-20 NIL funds, he could capitalize on the program’s resources to compete in the ACC. However, his lack of head coaching experience introduces risk, and fans should expect a learning curve. In a best-case scenario, Lucas could emulate Brad Stevens’s rapid success. For now, realistic expectations center on steady improvement, with the promise of a brighter future if Lucas grows into the role.

Alt candidates: Wes Miller from Cinci, Chris Holtmann from Ohio St, Anthony Grant from Dayton. Ideal options: Tommy Lloyd from Arizona, Eric Musselman from Arkansas.

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rayray said:

why? I would rather the basketball team be good than sit thru 3 more years of crappy teams so that I can come back here and tell a bunch of random people I told them so. I don’t care about you that much

I just think this archetype of hire — the dynamic recruiter getting his first job — is one that blows up spectacularly. people keep saying it’s “boom or bust” or “high upside high reward” but I’m not sure I see the upside. a first time coach is gonna turn Miami into a 5 star one and done factory? beyond just sounding far fetched in general, those teams don’t even typically do well in March

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Problem2 said:

If you actually go through Larranaga’s recruiting classes, they aren’t pretty….

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Carlcane said:

not sure why you think will is elite. only success at lsu was driven by illegal payments in those days. he has been successful at lower levels but that doesn't mean he can win at higher level. Beard would never succeed at Miami.

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skydogcane6 said:

Side note but I never understood why people get mad when someone follows an opinion by “happy to be proven wrong.” Like why is stating that you’re not a fan of a move but still hope it works out because I’m a fan frowned upon lol? “well you’re giving yourself an out” um no I’m not i literally just said I’m rooting against myself and that if it works out I was wrong.

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Carlcane said:

not sure why you think will is elite. only success at lsu was driven by illegal payments in those days. he has been successful at lower levels but that doesn't mean he can win at higher level. Beard would never succeed at Miami.

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mike804 said:

He didn’t get coop and some player at Duke

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NC_Canes_11 said:

NIL is now legal. Wade can do what he was doing legally now. He’s won everywhere he’s been.

There is zero proof Beard wouldn’t succeed here. He’s a top 10 coach in the country.

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Gables Canes said:

lol at anyone who thinks Will and Beard would come with more question marks than Lucas.

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NC_Canes_11 said:

NIL is now legal. Wade can do what he was doing legally now. He’s won everywhere he’s been.

There is zero proof Beard wouldn’t succeed here. He’s a top 10 coach in the country.

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Gransapo said:

Rad is stealing money, man.

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JZCane0825 said:

Why hasn’t Wade been hired by a major program?

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JZCane0825 said:

Goodman from CBS reporting it came down to Lucas and Richard Pitino

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