Is Cam Ward the best QB we’ve had since Dorsey? Lance Roffers breaks down the film and numbers
Nobody in the Canes community dives deeper into the film and advanced metrics than data scientist @Lance Roffers. He already wrote an in-depth article on Cam Ward for his “Upon Further Review” series, available here. On Tuesday, he joined the CanesInSight Podcast to discuss MIami’s star transfer QB, Cam Ward. Some of Lance’s quotes from the podcast are below:
His overall takeaway after reviewing Ward’s film and advanced stats: “I went in with a cluster of quarterbacks that I would take if I was Miami. I left my film review with Cam Ward thinking he was far and away better than the other individuals that you heard rumored for Miami. I started to see a clearer picture of why Mario really planted his flag on Cam Ward and endured the rollercoaster.”
“He's really a great fit for the Air Raid offense. Pre-snap, he processes very quickly. Excellent accuracy and arm strength. He also has the ability to threaten you deep. I felt like when you looked at the Will Howards, the DJ Uiagaleleis, some of these other individuals that were available, Cam Ward was definitely separating himself as the best fit for Miami.”
On what jumped out about Ward’s game: “His pre-snap processing where he's able to identify, ‘In this look, this is going to be my first read, this is going to be my second read,’ and then his ability to change that picture when the defense also changes it. That was something that really impressed me.”
“I haven't seen a Miami quarterback demonstrate the pre-snap IQ and ability to process the way that Ward has in many years. It could be all the way back to Dorsey, quite honestly. [Brad] Kaaya was good at that. I wouldn't say that he was elite at that. I feel like a lot of the throws were predetermined for Kaaya. I was really impressed Ward’s his ability to identify when a defense changed the picture.”
On Ward’s passing talent: “His release is elite. His arm strength's very good, but it's not something you've never seen before. It's not a Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes-type level. It's a very good arm, but his release is so quick, so compact, so versatile. Everything else for him plays up. Wouldn't change anything with his release at all. He has a natural ability to throw the football.”
“The pre-snap processing, again, is something that really impressed me. This person came from a Wing-T offense. This is not an individual who from 10 years old has been playing in a spread with a personal quarterback coach. For him to go from the Wing-T five years ago to what we see on tape with his ability to process, run Air Raid, stay on schedule with these short passes, but also threaten you deep is truly impressive. It actually leaves me to believe there's more on the bone to even develop a little bit further this year.”
“He's got to learn to trust that protection. If he trusts the protection at Miami, which you hope is going to be better than what he saw at Washington State, you could even see his game go to another level with the ability to threaten a defense in all areas. Every blade of grass on the field.”
On where Ward ranks as a prospect: “I really do believe that this is the best prospect at quarterback that Miami has had probably since the glory days. When you had what you called ‘Quarterback U’ and some of those guys getting drafted super high. The combination of arm strength, processing, accuracy, playmaking makes me understand why Mario planted his flag with Cam Ward.”
On Ward’s mobility: “He has some mobility, but really he wants to have his eyes downfield. He wants to move to create big plays, and sometimes to his detriment. There are several plays where he's bailing on the pocket and just holding the ball for five, six, seven seconds. I believe that he could unlock even more by taking some of those five, six, seven yard runs and getting out of bounds a little bit more instead of holding it.”
“He's probably a 4.8-type runner, which is solid speed for a quarterback. Where you're gonna really see his benefits in the red zone. He scored a lot of touchdowns with his legs (13 the past two years). Something that Miami struggled with last year was converting some of those low red zone type drives into touchdowns. You can use a Cam Ward, a 220-pound body type with strong legs, to get some of those touchdowns.”
On Ward’s tendency to drift backwards: “Those 14-16 yard losses may as well be turnovers because those are drive killers. Your offensive line is always taught to run a guy around the arc and push them deep. And you see Cam Ward trying to back up a lot, which is going right into where the rush is being pushed by the offensive line, rather than stepping up. There was more than one opportunity for him to step up. and either run, get four or five yards and slide, or just step up in the pocket and take a shot where he was still trying to bail on a pocket and get outside. So that's a big area for growth.
On Ward’s fumbles: "He does have small hands, but he also is loose with the ball. I'd love to see him do the two-hand drills in the pocket, understand quick movement, rip movements with the football when you have the ball like this, ripping away from the guy instead of holding it like this to where they can get to it quite as often."
On Ward’s fit with Miami’s personnel: "Cam is a perfect fit for what Miami is going to run in the screen game. For the wide short game, you need to have a strong arm. It might be a short throw from the line of scrimmage, but it's a long throw for the quarterback. It also needs to be quick because you have to get it to receiver to give them time to make a person miss. The initial defender is almost always unblocked, because it's two-on-two or two-on-three in every situation. You're not going to have an uncovered receiver out there, meaning you've got one blocker for two defenders on the initial man on those screens in almost all situations. Miami likes to try and get their center out there for that unblocked guy. But it's pretty rare that he's gonna have time to get out there before the defender has a chance to make a move. So a strong arm in that short, quick game that Miami loves to run."
“It’s also his pre-snap processing. If they do X, I do Y. That's something he excels at all over and over on tape.” (SEE EXAMPLE HERE)
“I watched multiple games of Cam Ward and saw him do that over and over. And Miami does that over and over in their offense. He's gonna love Xavier Restrepo with his ability to read those choice routes and be on the same page with a player who's reading leverage. If that defender does X, I do Y type of routes. He's gonna kill it on that.”
“The other thing that he does so well is his vertical shots. He really has great touch. He reads where a safety is. Is a safety inside hash, outside hash? Do I have leverage? Do I have press bail, press man? Do I have off quarters? All of those things. And his arm allows him to threaten defense.”
On Ward’s toughness: “He's not afraid to stand in the pocket. I went in with a little bit of bias, as quarterbacks who have a ton of fumbles and a ton of sacks taken tend to be a little bit softer. The reason for that is they don't like to get hit. They're just shelling up and dropping. Cam Ward was not that guy on tape at all. He took several shots where he stood in and delivered a ball."
Overall upside: “He should have much better pass protection than what he had at Washington State. And at Washington State, they really didn't have much of a run game at all. It was the Cam Ward Show. If you give him those things and allow him to reduce some of the rogue playmaking where he's throwing it into coverage, you've got a shot at a person who could go to New York for the Heisman ceremony this year. I think he's that good based on what I saw.”
that guy may not be starting for OSU after a few games next year.
