New LSU offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger will replace Matt Canada as the Tigers’ playcaller in 2018. So what can we expect from him against Miami in the first game of the season? In his January press conference (credit to Andrew Lopez at www.nola.com) , Ensminger said that he wants to play to the strengths of his offensive personnel, which in this case is his WR corps:
“I think we have to put three and four wide receivers on the field. I think we have to be a run-pass-option team. I think we have to be a fastball team. I think we have to go no huddle. That’s the direction that we’re going.”
Personnel
Though LSU graduated its top two receivers in Chark and Gage – the two combined for over 60 catches and nearly 1200 yards - they do have quite a bit of talent at that position. Stephen Sullivan and Drake Davis are their returning starters, and they will also get to play Texas Tech transfer Jonathan Giles, who had to sit out 2017 due to transfer rules. They have also added 5-star recruit Terrance Marshall, who looks to feature prominently in their passing attack.
Ensminger specifically mentioned running RPO several times during his press conference. As Miami found out the hard way with Richt and Brad Kaaya, installing RPO concepts with a new QB is not an easy thing to accomplish. This is exactly the position LSU will be in at the start of the 2018 season. Myles Brennan is the current favorite to replace the departing Danny Etling, who racked up nearly 2500 yards, 16 TDs, and 2 INTs in 2017. However, LSU also has two other QBs who could possibly threaten Brennan this Spring in R-Fr Lowell Narcisse and R-Jr Justin McMillan. Narcisse was a 4-star recruit out of St. James, Louisiana and was ranked the #9 dual-threat QB in the country by 247 Sports. If LSU is looking to move more toward a spread look with RPO and read-option elements, Narcisse might be the guy to run it.
LSU has another daunting task at running back, replacing their two leading rushers Derrius Guice (237 attempts, 1250 yards, 13 total TDs in 2017) and Darrel Williams (145 attempts, 820 yards, 9 TDs.) Rising senior Nick Brossette will most likely get the lion’s share of carries this year, but it’s no secret the Tigers are going to be thin at RB early on.
In the trenches, LSU also loses three offensive linemen from a year ago – both starting tackles as well as their starting center.
Scheme
If Ensminger is taken at his word, he wants to spread things out, go up-tempo, play lots of RPO, and distribute the ball to his talented WRs. Look for lots of outside screens in the passing game, especially early on, in order to get their new QB into a rhythm. Initially, I’d expect a “Rosier-esque” gameplan from the Tigers – limit the new QBs reads, cut the field in half, and if it’s not there early, get rid of it or take off. From Ensminger’s comments, it doesn’t appear he has much confidence in his RBs yet, understandable considering who they’re trying to replace, so it would make sense that they will try to use the short passing game to loosen up the LBs and set up the run later on. The strength of their offensive line on paper is their guards, so when they do run, look for an inside zone-based rushing attack.
It also wouldn’t surprise me to see some of Matt Canada’s concepts linger around, especially early in the year. This means jet sweeps, motion, and getting RBs and WRs in space as often as possible. It should be noted that in 2017 WR Russell Gage was the Tigers’ 3rd leading rusher behind Guice and Williams. I’d expect them to use someone like Giles or Terrance Marshall in this role.
LSU vs. Miami Matchup
To me, the key to this game will be the play of our LBs. We need to make sure Shaq and Pinckney don’t get caught peeking and that they are free to play fast both downhill and sideline-to-sideline. With Norton and McIntosh gone, I’d like to see some well-timed double-A-gap blitzes to help whoever ends up at the 1-tech in passing situations. Beyond that, I really think our front 7 is equipped to handle this re-vamped LSU offense.
As we’ve seen with Diaz’s defenses, he will blitz early and often and probably play zone on the back end to limit the big play. However, I definitely would like to see us use some more man-to-man concepts, particularly at CB. Michael Jackson has emerged as a top CB in the ACC and can run with anyone. Let him rough up Marshall or Giles a few times and knock them off their routes. Talented though they are, I don’t believe LSU’s WRs can run with our DBs all game long. The only WR that scares me on paper is true freshman Marshall – the others are journeymen, and although Giles put up gaudy numbers at Texas Tech two years ago, honestly, who doesn’t put up gaudy numbers at Texas Tech?
It's still pre-Spring so a lot can and will change, but the bottom line is still this: LSU lost a lot of yards from a year ago at QB, WR, and RB, as well as 3 OL starters. That’s going to be tough for any team to overcome Game 1. If Miami doesn’t get too cute on defense (always a concern with Diaz) I think we can hold them to under 14 points. And if Miami gets even a slight upgrade at the QB position, that should be more than enough for Richt and Co. to get out of Arlington with a win.
Way Too Early Score Prediction: Miami 24, LSU 13
“I think we have to put three and four wide receivers on the field. I think we have to be a run-pass-option team. I think we have to be a fastball team. I think we have to go no huddle. That’s the direction that we’re going.”
Personnel
Though LSU graduated its top two receivers in Chark and Gage – the two combined for over 60 catches and nearly 1200 yards - they do have quite a bit of talent at that position. Stephen Sullivan and Drake Davis are their returning starters, and they will also get to play Texas Tech transfer Jonathan Giles, who had to sit out 2017 due to transfer rules. They have also added 5-star recruit Terrance Marshall, who looks to feature prominently in their passing attack.
Ensminger specifically mentioned running RPO several times during his press conference. As Miami found out the hard way with Richt and Brad Kaaya, installing RPO concepts with a new QB is not an easy thing to accomplish. This is exactly the position LSU will be in at the start of the 2018 season. Myles Brennan is the current favorite to replace the departing Danny Etling, who racked up nearly 2500 yards, 16 TDs, and 2 INTs in 2017. However, LSU also has two other QBs who could possibly threaten Brennan this Spring in R-Fr Lowell Narcisse and R-Jr Justin McMillan. Narcisse was a 4-star recruit out of St. James, Louisiana and was ranked the #9 dual-threat QB in the country by 247 Sports. If LSU is looking to move more toward a spread look with RPO and read-option elements, Narcisse might be the guy to run it.
LSU has another daunting task at running back, replacing their two leading rushers Derrius Guice (237 attempts, 1250 yards, 13 total TDs in 2017) and Darrel Williams (145 attempts, 820 yards, 9 TDs.) Rising senior Nick Brossette will most likely get the lion’s share of carries this year, but it’s no secret the Tigers are going to be thin at RB early on.
In the trenches, LSU also loses three offensive linemen from a year ago – both starting tackles as well as their starting center.
Scheme
If Ensminger is taken at his word, he wants to spread things out, go up-tempo, play lots of RPO, and distribute the ball to his talented WRs. Look for lots of outside screens in the passing game, especially early on, in order to get their new QB into a rhythm. Initially, I’d expect a “Rosier-esque” gameplan from the Tigers – limit the new QBs reads, cut the field in half, and if it’s not there early, get rid of it or take off. From Ensminger’s comments, it doesn’t appear he has much confidence in his RBs yet, understandable considering who they’re trying to replace, so it would make sense that they will try to use the short passing game to loosen up the LBs and set up the run later on. The strength of their offensive line on paper is their guards, so when they do run, look for an inside zone-based rushing attack.
It also wouldn’t surprise me to see some of Matt Canada’s concepts linger around, especially early in the year. This means jet sweeps, motion, and getting RBs and WRs in space as often as possible. It should be noted that in 2017 WR Russell Gage was the Tigers’ 3rd leading rusher behind Guice and Williams. I’d expect them to use someone like Giles or Terrance Marshall in this role.
LSU vs. Miami Matchup
To me, the key to this game will be the play of our LBs. We need to make sure Shaq and Pinckney don’t get caught peeking and that they are free to play fast both downhill and sideline-to-sideline. With Norton and McIntosh gone, I’d like to see some well-timed double-A-gap blitzes to help whoever ends up at the 1-tech in passing situations. Beyond that, I really think our front 7 is equipped to handle this re-vamped LSU offense.
As we’ve seen with Diaz’s defenses, he will blitz early and often and probably play zone on the back end to limit the big play. However, I definitely would like to see us use some more man-to-man concepts, particularly at CB. Michael Jackson has emerged as a top CB in the ACC and can run with anyone. Let him rough up Marshall or Giles a few times and knock them off their routes. Talented though they are, I don’t believe LSU’s WRs can run with our DBs all game long. The only WR that scares me on paper is true freshman Marshall – the others are journeymen, and although Giles put up gaudy numbers at Texas Tech two years ago, honestly, who doesn’t put up gaudy numbers at Texas Tech?
It's still pre-Spring so a lot can and will change, but the bottom line is still this: LSU lost a lot of yards from a year ago at QB, WR, and RB, as well as 3 OL starters. That’s going to be tough for any team to overcome Game 1. If Miami doesn’t get too cute on defense (always a concern with Diaz) I think we can hold them to under 14 points. And if Miami gets even a slight upgrade at the QB position, that should be more than enough for Richt and Co. to get out of Arlington with a win.
Way Too Early Score Prediction: Miami 24, LSU 13
