Canes offense v. Gators defense (by the numbers)

DMoney
DMoney
4 min read
The last time Miami played the Gators, a veteran Gators’ pass rush overwhelmed an inexperienced Canes’ offense. That mathchup will look different on Saturday, as a Miami offense loaded with veterans takes on a Gator defense trying to move on from a disastrous season.

We dove into the numbers to see how the two teams match up. National rankings are in parentheses:

OVERALL

Miami scoring offense- 30.1 ppg (38th)
Florida scoring defense- 29.5 ppg (85th)

Miami yards per play- 6.1 YPP (25th)
Florida yards per play against- 6.5 YPP (124th)

Miami giveaways per game- 1.8 ypg (109th)
Florida takeaways per game- 0.6 per game (128th)

Miami’s offense improved dramatically across the board under Shannon Dawson, but was hampered by Tyler Van Dyke’s mental collapse against drop coverage. Florida’s defense struggled in all phases and could not generate turnovers.

Based on what I’ve observed in practice and film, and speaking to sources, Cam Ward is a significant improvement over Van Dyke in terms of IQ. His turnover issues come from fumbles, which were exacerbated by a terrible Washington State line. Florida did not land impact personnel in the Portal, but added a veteran co-defensive coordinator (Rob Roberts) and is counting on improvement from its young players.

One of the key questions of the game: which side is going to solve its turnover issue?

THE RUN GAME

Miami yards per rush- 5.0 ypg (20th)
Florida yards per rush allowed- 5.1 ypg (117th)

Miami rushing yards per game- 167.6 ypg (47th)
Florida rushing yards per game allowed- 165.5 ypg (88th)

This is a significant advantage for Miami, on paper. The Canes had one of the most efficient running games in the nation last year without the benefit of explosive runs. They’ve now added a Top 10 college back in Damien Martinez. The Gators have size on the interior, but could not stop the run all year. They will benefit from the return of injured LB Shemar James and the addition of LB Pup Howard from South Carolina, a highly touted recruit who played a backup role at South Carolina last year.

THE PASSING GAME

Miami yards per pass- 7.5 (57th)
Florida yards per pass against- 8.5 (124th)

Miami sack percentage allowed- 3.6% (15th)
Florida’s sack percentage- 6.04% (72nd)

The Canes’ pass game is a bit of an unknown, as it revolves around a player (Cam Ward) who was not here last year. But most observers project significant improvement based on his past performance. The Gators pass defense was one of the worst in the nation last year. They couldn’t tackle, the coverage was poor and the pass rush was limited. They also lost their best pass rusher to the Portal (Princely Umanmielen).

The Gators are counting on the return of EDGE Justus Boone from injury, the addition of Washington veteran S Asa Turner, and growth from some highly ranked young players to improve their pass defense.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

Miami scrimmage plays (national rank):

10+ yards- 40th
20+ yards- 35th
30+ yards- 70th
40+ yards- 57th
50+ yards- 56th

Florida scrimmage plays allowed (national rank):

10+ yards- 50th
20+ yards- 71st
30+ yards- 123rd
40+ yards- 132nd
50+ yards- 118th

Florida’s defense had many weaknesses last year, but the worst was their propensity for giving up huge explosives. They were a poor tackling team at all three levels. Miami was middle-of-the-road in terms of explosiveness last year, hampered by a lack of explosive runs and a true burner at wide receiver.

Will the addition of Cam Ward, Sam Brown and Damien Martinez allow Miami to exploit the Gators’ weakness?

 

Comments (11)

Explosive plays will be the difference for the winner. Who can create the most and who can stop the most
 
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Whatever play was called to break Martinez for 60 yard tuddy in the scrimmage should be the first play called
 
I think Arroyo will have a breakout game tomorrow. Any stats on how the gator defended against TEs last season?
Just took a quick look, no big games by TEs against the Gators last year. But they didn't go up against anybody like Arroyo. Utah, Kentucky, Arkansas, and LSU steamrolled them on the ground and they struggled against the run in a few other games too. Teams didn't seem to have much of a need to put the ball in the air a whole lot against that D.
 
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Gainesville Sun writer wrote that Cam Ward has a fumble problem....predicted that the Gators will get 3 turnovers and win the game. :stupid:
 
With the new CFB / portal world stats from the previous years doesn’t hold much water imo . There’s so much change over on teams that you’re using stats for teams that no longer exist. Our D stats are useless since we played without most of our DL . Offense has a new stud qb , a game changing rb and a third game breaking wr. All stats go out the window imo. These are nowhere the same teams. It can tell you some about coaches and tendencies but that’s about it.
 
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